MLB Picks

Jared Jones has been nothing short of exceptional over the past month. He is sporting an excellent 2.29 ERA and his indicators (2.15 xFIP, 1.86 xERA) are even better.

The Chicago Cubs have hit .236 with a strikeout rate above 25% during the same period. This is a matchup Jones should continue to find success.

Bet Pittsburgh to -135.

Tarik Skubal enters in solid form, posting a 3.04 FIP over his last five appearances while allowing only a 17.5% hard-hit rate. Kansas City’s opener setup should expose a struggling bullpen, giving Detroit a clear path to create separation if Skubal keeps the Royals quiet early tonight at Comerica Park.

Cam Schlittler has allowed only eight runs over eight starts against teams that ranked Bottom-10 in batting average in the 10 games prior to squaring off, and the Phillies sit 27th.

Jesus Luzardo owns a 4.68 ERA against Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. left-handed pitching – and the New York Yankees sit second on the year.

Back the Yankees to +100.

Roki Sasaki enters in poor form, posting a 7.28 FIP over his last four appearances while allowing a 17.2% barrel rate. Sean Manaea is not flawless, but the Dodgers have shown limited power against lefties, and New York’s bullpen owns a strong 3.06 xERA over the last week.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has torched Fenway Park throughout his career and draws another favorable matchup against left-hander Patrick Sandoval, making him an enticing quarter-unit home run play at +500 or longer.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.