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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.35 |
+116 
|
o6.5 -150 
|
+1.5 -190 
|
|
4.44 |
-121 
|
u7.5 -138
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Tampa Bay
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rasmussens last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rasmussens last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in Rodons last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+105
|
o7.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -205 
|
|
4.33 |
-120
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Samuel Basallo o0.5 Total RBIs (+297)
o0.5+297
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 |
+136 
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.29 |
-155
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
u0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.22 |
-135
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
o0.5+226
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+145
|
o7.0 -119
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.13 |
-150
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+222)
o0.5+222
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.60 |
+110
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.82 |
-122
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +173
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+222
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.19 |
+115
|
o6.0 -137
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.67 |
-130
|
u6.5 -108
|
-1.5 +173
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in Rasmussens last 4 starts on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+136)
o4.5-148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
+160
|
o9.0 -118
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.25 |
-184
|
u9.5 -124
|
-1.5 +116
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Williamsons last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Matt McLain o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.38 |
-117
|
o7.5 -127
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.31 |
+104
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -164
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+261)
o0.5+261
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.12 |
+175
|
o6.5 -118
|
+2.5 -230
|
|
3.72 |
-200
|
u7.0 -139
|
-2.5 +180
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Junks last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+136)
o1.5-700
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
+110
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.39 |
-120
|
u8.5 -128
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Texas
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+222)
o0.5+222
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.10 |
-190
|
o10.5 -125
|
-1.5 -122
|
|
4.89 |
+165
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
o2.5-120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.03 |
+120
|
o7.0 -122
|
+1.5 -179
|
|
4.41 |
-130
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +155
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Javiers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Javiers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.46 |
-107
|
o9.0 -139
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
5.12 |
-108
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +180
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in Bassos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-130
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.34 |
+115
|
u8.0 -143
|
+1.5 -152
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Marcelo Mayer u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
+110
|
o8.0 -121
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.91 |
-124
|
u8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +165
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2 in Twins last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.09 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.09 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.96 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Nolas last 7 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.11 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Liberatores last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.72 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.88 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.86 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.86 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Reds last 7 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 road games.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.79 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.88 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
2.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.79 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+370)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Rice owns a .508 xSLG and 14.0% barrel rate, giving him one of the strongest power profiles remaining in New York's lineup. Martinez's contact suppression makes this a difficult matchup overall, but his complete lack of strikeout stuff gives Rice an advantage. Rice also hits Martinez's most serviceable pitches so well.
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+361)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Rice owns a .508 xSLG and 14.0% barrel rate, giving him one of the strongest power profiles remaining in New York's lineup. Martinez's contact suppression makes this a difficult matchup overall, but his complete lack of strikeout stuff gives Rice an advantage. Especially since Rice hits Martinez's most serviceable pitches so well.
TOR
@
BAL
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
WAS
@
DET
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, CJ Abrams ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Drew Anderson throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dylan Crews is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation often leads to better offense.. Dylan Crews has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.7-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 93.8-mph.. Dylan Crews's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 13.1% to 19.4%.
MIL
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (-133)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
With the Milwaukee sending Dustin May to the hill on short rest, I like the Philadelphia moneyline to 60%. May recorded seven outs in Friday’s start, and he’s up to a massive 6.91 xERA and 4.42 xFIP across his last six outings. The righty has negative pitch values on his four most frequent offerings, and the struggles align with May passing his prior career high in innings pitched. Of course, the Phillies are countering with veteran Zack Wheeler, and he’s been fantastic down the stretch with a 2.63 xERA and 3.30 xFIP through his past four starts.
Total RBIs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jake Bauers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #9 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage over Zack Wheeler in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
STL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jordan Walker o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)
Projection 1.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park projects as the #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the past week, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.3% up to 33.3%.. Jordan Walker has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.7-mph figure.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles PNC Park as the 3rd-best park in baseball for LHB BABIP.. Hitting from the opposite that Jared Jones throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's game.. In the past 7 days, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.1% up to 22.2%.
CLE
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total Home Runs (+675)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Wilyer Abreu's ISO sits at .190 facing southpaws but spikes to .267 when isolating the fastball-sinker combination that Parker Messick relies on so heavily.
His strikeout rate sits at just 13.2% against those two pitches, which is below his barrel rate of 14.5%. It’s always a good sign when you’re making elite contact more frequently than punching out.
Moneyline
BOS (-123)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the Boston Red Sox up to 55%.
Payton Tolle ranks first among all of today’s projected starters in xFIP and SIERA over the past 30 days.
Isolating Parker Messick’s three most-used pitches, three of Boston’s projected Top-4 batters own xwOBAs of .390 or higher against southpaws.
The pitching should be great for both teams but I have more trust in the top of Boston’s order to produce.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Heliot Ramos u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Yankee Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in baseball for RHB BABIP.. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense.. Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Heliot Ramos will have a disadvantage in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.
Total Home Runs
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Victor Mesa Jr. ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #9 field in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences among all major league stadiums.. Over the past week, Victor Mesa Jr.'s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%.. Utilizing Statcast data, Victor Mesa Jr. ranks in the 85th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.
CIN
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Matt McLain ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games today at 82°.. Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
JJ Bleday is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. Truist Park projects as the #4 stadium in the majors for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 3rd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games today at 82°.
CHW
@
KC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, Randal Grichuk has been pulled from the game early in 58% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. In today's matchup, Randal Grichuk is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (77th percentile).. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's game.
Total Hits
Salvador Perez u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 6th-best of the day for mound aces.. Today, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (86th percentile).. Salvador Perez's speed has decreased this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.7 ft/sec now.. With a .275 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Salvador Perez grades out in the 6th percentile.
MIA
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dansby Swanson is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.. In the majors, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Janson Junk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today's game.
Total Bases
Michael Busch u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 5th-deepest RF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. In the majors, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Michael Busch's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 84.3-mph over the last 7 days.
NYM
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jake Burger o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jake Burger finds himself in a feast spot against Mets southpaw Sean Manaea, who has posted a near-17% barrel rate across his last five starts. Burger, meanwhile, has been torching left-handers, generating a 60% hard-hit rate and 35% barrel rate against the last 60 he has faced, along with a .731 SLG and .462 ISO. Manaea has also struggled to limit hard contact from right-handed hitters, allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over his last 30. With Burger crushing southpaws and Manaea allowing plenty of hard contact, the Rangers slugger has a strong chance to leave the yard.
Walks Allowed
MacKenzie Gore o1.5 Walks Allowed (-143)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
MacKenzie Gore has struggled to find the zone recently, making his walks prop worth a look against the Mets. The Rangers left-hander owns a near 17% walk rate over his last five starts and has allowed at least three walks in five straight outings. New York has also been drawing walks at a strong clip against left-handed pitching, with seven hitters posting at least a 10% walk rate over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws. Gore could be on a short leash because of his command issues, but that also creates a path for this prop to cash early. I’m willing to play it up to -145.
AZ
@
COL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-151)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Kyle Freeland has struggled at home this season, allowing 3.5 runs per outing while carrying the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Now, he faces an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating. Arizona also owns the highest-rated lineup on today’s slate and enters this matchup swinging a hot bat, posting a 115 wRC+, .775 OPS and .341 wOBA over its last 12 games. With teams averaging roughly three runs through the first five innings and Colorado allowing well over three at home, the over 2.5 first-five runs stands out as the preferred number.
Total RBIs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.
HOU
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Cal Raleigh is back and better than ever. Okay, maybe not ever – but he’s back!
Raleigh has hammered the fastball-sweeper combination over the last 25 games, posting a ridiculous .478 ISO and 35.7% barrel rate.
Raleigh only has seven career at-bats against Cristian Javier but hit safely in three of them, with one leaving the park.
Total
u7.5 (-134)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 57%.
Cristian Javier had a tough start to the season but has quietly pitched well of late, recording a 3.65 ERA and 3.52 xERA over his past five starts.
Logan Gilbert has locked down subpar offenses vs. RHP, especially in pitcher-friendly conditions. He’s recorded an impressive 2.76 ERA and 2.33 xERA over 10 starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in xwOBA.
LAA
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Yusei Kikuchi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+128)
Projection 5.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Henry Bolte, Zack Gelof, Denzel Clarke, Lawrence Butler).
Total Bases
Zach Neto o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Zach Neto is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.
MIN
@
SF
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Drew Gilbert o0.5 Total Home Runs (+770)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Drew Gilbert's recent power profile makes him an intriguing longshot. He's homered twice in five games while producing a .500 ISO, 60% hard-hit rate, and 20% barrel rate lately. Bradley has also been more vulnerable to home runs on the road, giving Gilbert a legitimate path to another bomb.
Total
o7.5 (-101)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The bullpen matchup creates plenty of late scoring potential. San Francisco's relief corps has posted a 6.73 FIP with 2.45 HR/9 allowed over the last week, while Minnesota's pen hasn't exactly been dominant either. At only 7.5, one rough relief inning could quickly push this Over.
SD
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+373)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been scoring hot at the dish, leaving the yard five times in his last nine games. Dodger Stadium's 124 Park Factor for home runs means that there's an increased chance of Tatis continuing his fine form by popping a long ball.
Play to 55%. Michael King has induced a 17% soft contact rate in his last eight starts and ranks in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate. L.A.'s bullpen has a 3.18 FIP and league-best 2.76 SIERA in relief across the last 14 days, and San Diego will have Mason Miller and all its best arms rested after Monday's off day.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
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