A quartet of national soccer teams will realize their World Cup dreams Tuesday, while four others will begin a four-year nightmare.
The World Cup playoff finals are finally here, with eight teams vying for a coveted last-minute spot in the most exclusive field in soccer. A trip to North America or Mexico awaits the four victors, and prediction markets like Kalshi have drawn a clear line on which team is the favorite in each matchup.
Take a look at the latest World Cup playoff win probability for all four of Tuesday's matchups, and follow our advice to make your World Cup picks as successful as possible.
Who will win Czechia vs Denmark?
Czechia win probability: 22% (+355)
Denmark win probability: 50% (+100)
Draw probability: 29% (+245)
A World Cup spot is on the line Tuesday in Prague, but the gap in quality between these sides is hard to ignore. Czechia found a way through Ireland with grit, while Denmark delivered one of the most complete performances of the playoffs to reach this point.
Our prediction: Denmark (50¢, +100)
Covers soccer analyst Sam Farley broke down the Danes this way: "Denmark looked like a team a level above in their 4-0 win over North Macedonia. They dictated the tempo from start to finish and have done so consistently, averaging 20 shots and nearly 65% possession during qualifying. That level of control, combined with their experience in high-pressure matches, gives them a clear edge in a spot where execution matters most."
Check out Sam's complete analysis in his Czechia vs. Denmark predictions.
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Who will win Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy?
Bosnia and Herzegovina win probability: 12% (+733)
Italy win probability: 67% (-203)
Draw probability: 22% (+355)
Ninety minutes stand between Italy and their first World Cup appearance since 2014, and for some fans, the nerves have already arrived. For the Italians, a trip to Bosnia to take on a team with plenty of attacking intent will prove tricky, which should lead to plenty of potential chances on both sides of the center line.
Our prediction: Italy (67¢, -203)
The Italians simply have too much firepower — but Covers soccer analyst Chris Vasile likes another play better: The O2.5 goals, which carries a probability of 45% (+122).
"Bosnia have quietly been one of the more reliable attacking sides in this playoff cycle, scoring in 12 straight matches while seeing both teams hit the scoresheet in four of their last five. That’s a concern for an Italy side heading on the road for a much tougher test than their matchup with Northern Ireland. Italy’s recent results have also leaned toward open games, with 13 of their last 17 clearing the 2.5-goal total. "
Check out Chris's complete analysis in his Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy predictions.
Who will win Kosovo vs Turkey?
Kosovo win probability: 23% (+335)
Turkey win probability: 53% (-113)
Draw probability: 26% (+285)
Turkey might be a comfortable favorite, but Covers soccer analyst Emmanuel Rosu notes that recent form is not on their side as they look to book a trip to the 2026 World Cup against a gritty Kosovo side that downed Slovakia to reach the playoff final.
Our prediction: Draw (26¢, +285)
Rosu's take: "Turkey failed to impress against Romania, going into halftime level and needing just one goal to get through. Kosovo, meanwhile, have been involved in tight contests, drawing two of their last four before the playoffs and showing they’re capable of competing in close games. With Turkey also starting slowly in their semifinal, this sets up as another closely contested battle — making a draw at halftime or full-time a strong angle in Pristina."
Check out Emmanuel's complete analysis in his Kosovo vs. Turkey predictions.
Who will win Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden win probability: 47% (+113)
Poland win probability: 27% (+270)
Draw probability: 29% (+245)
Not only is Tuesday's Sweden vs. Poland showdown considered to be the tightest matchup of the four World Cup playoff matches, it also has the highest scoring potential, with star power dotting both teams' lineups (particularly up front). Sweden are a modest favorite, but traders shouldn't be shocked to see a Poland victory here.
Our prediction: Poland (27¢, +270)
Covers soccer analyst Jason Ence is leaning toward the underdogs in this one, while also making a play on the O2.5 goals (48¢, +108): "Both of these teams have dangerous attacks. Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski give Poland a dangerous duo, while Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga will put pressure on Poland’s defense. Meanwhile, Sweden’s defense is vulnerable, and Poland’s depth and adaptability will create tactical mismatches for the hosts."
Check out Jason's complete analysis in his Sweden vs. Poland predictions.
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will Czechia win tonight?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on World Cup Qualifying at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in 49 states (excluding Nevada) and D.C., including many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
