MLB Picks

I'm a little late to the Dansby Swanson power surge, but for a guy with seven home runs over the last two weeks and the fifth-best slugging percentage in baseball during that stretch, today might be the best spot yet to ride the hot bat. Dean Kremer gets the ball for the Orioles, and that pushes a lot of the Cubs' home run props into +EV territory. Kremer is making just his second start after a lengthy IL stint and is one of the best home run targets on the board. He has allowed a homer in each of his four starts this season, ranks among the bottom 30 starters in HR/9 over the last three seasons, and gives up plenty of fly balls. I've been hesitant to play Swanson's home run prop because he still hits in the lower third of the order, but he's getting his four plate appearances and has been hitting the ball harder than 99% of the league of late. The fair price is closer to +400.

How about a square pick at a good price with an elite matchup? The Royals are using an opener today before turning things over to Triple-A call-up Mitch Spence for the bulk innings. It's already a bullpen missing three arms after yesterday's "baseball game" that produced 28 runs, 32 hits, and three errors. Juan Soto went deep against right-hander Seth Lugo last night in the fourth inning, yet his home run price is nearly 100 points longer today in an even better matchup. Spence has allowed 11 home runs in 59+ innings this season and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. This has the makings of another loose baseball game with plenty of home run upside for the Mets. Soto ranks among the Top 25 hitters in both slugging and ISO over the last two weeks, and I make this home run prop closer to +270.

D-backs starter Jose Cabrera struggled to find the strike zone in his last outing, surrendering three earned runs over 3 1/3 innings against Milwaukee. Arizona will also have a tough time against Michael King, who has held D-backs hitters to a .546 OPS across 62 at-bats. The Padres are playable to -150.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.