MLB Picks

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters.. Since the start of last season, Josh Bell's 12.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #7 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jack Leiter to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Jack Leiter will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst among every team today.. Placing in the 84th percentile, Wyatt Langford sports a .341 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #5 venue in MLB for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Chase Burns throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's matchup.. Ryan O'Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Chase Burns in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz's 17.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

The Washington Nationals are trading as +152 underdogs on the moneyline, and that number stands out—I make them closer to +113 in this spot. The matchup sets up well for Washington against Taijuan Walker, a pitch-to-contact arm facing a lineup loaded with left-handed and switch hitters. With seven hitters from that side, this is a profile that can give him real trouble. At the top, James Wood and CJ Abrams both match up well against his sinker-cutter mix and should be in position to generate quality contact. The environment also works against Walker. With the wind blowing out to center field at around 10 mph at Citizens Bank Park, conditions favor balls carrying—something that doesn’t pair well with a contact-heavy pitching approach. When you combine the matchup and the weather factors, this line feels too long, making Washington a strong value as an underdog.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best venue in the majors for strikeouts.. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.

There's no question that Munetaka Murakami's power bat plays at the big-league level after hitting a home run in each of his three MLB games. He gets a great matchup against Miami's Chris Paddack on Monday. Paddack has ranked in the Bottom 10% of MLB pitchers in expected slugging in each of the last two seasons.

The Chicago White Sox might be headed for another dreadful season, but newcomer Munetaka Murakami is the sunshine on the Southside. The Japanese left-hander has gone deep in every game this year, and although there is some swing and miss potential, that works well for home run props as it's all or nothing with the rookie, with all three hits leaving the yard. He has also moved from the sixth spot in the lineup to the second spot, so five plate appearances are very possible if Chicago can turn things over. He's going from an indoor setting to another controlled environment in Miami, and only four other pitchers in baseball last year gave up more home runs than Miami's Chris Paddack. Fair price on the projection is +360.

Targeting starter Tomoyuki Sugano is a clear angle here. He allowed the fourth-most home runs last season and ranked in the bottom 6% of the league in K% and Barrel% — a bad combo for limiting damage.  The best +EV look is Kazuma Okamoto HR (+500) with the market as short as +425. He hit out of the five-hole yesterday and already cashed a HR ticket in a tougher matchup. No starter projects for more earned runs on the slate than Sugano. 

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Cody Ponce in the 89th percentile among all starters in the game.. The Colorado Rockies (25.8% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate.. The weather forecast predicts the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Cody Ponce will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats across the board.

The A's "swing for the fences " approach will lead to a lot of home runs but will also mean a lot of strikeouts. Blue Jays starters punched them out 50 times over the weekend. Elder isn't a huge strikeout guy, but he improved in that regard at the end of 2025 and is a workhorse who will get plenty of chances to go Over this number.

Back the A's to get their first win of the season after being swept by the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Braves' lack of rotation depth gets exposed with right-hander Bryce Elder toeing the rubber amid multiple injuries. Elder posted a 5.30 ERA in 156 1/3 innings in 2025 with a middling 19.3% strikeout rate. He should be just what Nick Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, and the A's need to get going.

Moises Ballesteros's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Moises Ballesteros will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson in today's game.. The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Edward Cabrera is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-most of all pitchers on the slate today.. Carson Kelly, the Cubs's expected catcher in today's game, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

All the Milwaukee Brewers seem to do is win, but at +134, I’m backing the Tampa Bay Rays with Nick Martinez on the mound—I make this number closer to +109 on the moneyline. Martinez leans heavily on his sinker-changeup mix, and while Milwaukee will likely load up on left-handed bats like Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, that may not be as big of an advantage as it looks. Martinez was highly effective against lefties last season, holding them to a .208 average against his changeup and consistently disrupting their pull-side power. Tampa Bay also comes into this matchup with some offensive momentum after breaking out at the plate in their last game. That’s important against a left-hander like Kyle Harrison, especially with Yandy Díaz swinging a hot bat at the top of the order. 

Both offenses are off to a scorching start, combining for 52 runs while ranking in the top four in wRC+, which has translated to the clubs combining for a 5-1 Over record. There’s no reason to expect a slowdown here with a shaky pitching matchup, especially with Nick Martinez, who posted a 7.71 ERA across three outings vs Milwaukee last season. Add in a Rays bullpen that’s been getting lit up, and this sets up as another high-scoring game.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.. The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Projected catcher Pedro Pages projects as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Kyle Leahy will hold that advantage in today's game.. Among all starters, Kyle Leahy's fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 83rd percentile since the start of last season.

The righty struck out 61 over 55 1/3 innings last season. There hasn’t been a single year since he came up to the majors where he hasn’t struck out more than one hitter per inning. 

Abreu is scorching hot to begin the 2026 campaign. He’s hitting .462 with a pair of home runs already. He went deep in back-to-back games to close out Boston’s three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds. McCullers Jr. is HR-prone at times, and he gave up 10 last season in only 16 appearances.

Willy Adames has reached 30+ home runs in each of the last two seasons. In his age-30 season with a revamped batting stance, Adames can be projected to continue hitting for power and posting an ISO around .200.

A year ago, he had reverse splits with a 112 wRC+ and 20 HRs against righties, 95 wRC+ and 10 HRs against lefties.

Buehler struggles to keep left-handed hitters off base, but right-handed hitters dole out the damage, tagging him for an absurd 2.10 HR/9. 

After failing to score a run in either of the first two games of the season, the San Francisco Giants made a change at the top of the order by installing Jung Hoo Lee as the leadoff man on Saturday. 

He responded by scoring the team’s only run of the season, so it’s likely he stays in that spot. That’s a premium spot against Walker Buehler (5.39 xERA, 5.66 FIP), who struggled mightily against lefties (.300 BA, 1.79 WHIP). 

Lee stands a good chance of getting on base, and the heart of the order behind him has two left-handed bats (Luis Arraez, Rafael Devers) poised to knock Buehler around and drive Lee home.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Julio Rodriguez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the worst out of every team in action today.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the worst out of every team in action today.. Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate today).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 81°.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka today.

When it comes to his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 park in baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 81°.. Spencer Torkelson's 13.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 84th percentile since the start of last season.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 park in the majors for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height in the league.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Rhys Hoskins ranks in the 98th percentile with a 23.1° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in the majors.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 11th-best batter in the league.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height in the league.. Kyle Tucker will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.