MLB Picks

The White Sox have won four of the last six head-to-head meetings with the Tigers, and have absolutely owned left-handed pitchers like Framber Valdez.

The Royals have been losing big all season. K.C.'s runline and moneyline records are the same, meaning that giving up the 1.5 runs against them isn't a big risk. While starter Seth Lugo started the year strong, May was rough, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in five starts. 

The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing offensive stats to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 35%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 16.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the last 14 days, Henry Davis has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9.5% to 18.8%.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.8°, Henry Davis has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 33.6° angle over the past 14 days.. As it relates to his batting average, Henry Davis has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .157 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

Peter Lambert has been far less effective at home, with a 4.32 ERA driven by rough outings in his last two home starts. Milwaukee righties have the third-lowest pull rate vs. RHP during May. That will negate the effectiveness of his sinker/slider combo, which Lambert utilizes 44% of the time in same-sided matchups.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The #5 venue in baseball for boosting base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Willson Contreras will have the handedness advantage against Parker Messick in today's game.

The #4 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball.. Among all the teams today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.. Oswald Peraza has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 110.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 90.3-mph.. Oswald Peraza's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 38.4% to 49%.

The New York Mets have the pitching advantage with Christian Scott taking the bump. He owns a 2.8 FIP and 3.0 ERA over the past month despite a .328 batting average on balls put in play, which should drop moving forward.

Tyler Phillips’ xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA, suggesting regression could be coming.

Olson draws a favorable matchup against Brady Singer, who has surrendered six homers across his last two starts and struggles badly against left-handed hitters. The Braves first baseman has 15 long balls this season, including six in May, and owns two career homers against Singer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Leahy in today's game.

Kyle Karros's BABIP ability is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best park in the game for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Karros will hold that advantage today.

While I expect the Yankees to score enough to cover the run-line, Ginn will still be decent. He does a great job limiting hard contact with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the top 14% of baseball, which is essential against the Yankees. On the other side, we've already spoken about how Weathers whiff-inducing stuff should carry him. I'd play this to -122.

Roki Sasaki allows loud contact (11th percentile barrel rate, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), which is a concern against a Philadelphia lineup with the fifth-highest hard-hit rate (35.6%) in the last 20 days. His four-seamer has been crushed (.348 xBA, .614 xSLG), and Philadelphia (fourth-most WAR against fastballs) will be happy to oblige.

 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the league.. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Corbin Carroll will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.