MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Casey Schmitt in the 86th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the weakest among every team playing today.. Casey Schmitt will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. LoanDepot Park has the 6th-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. In the last week, Manny Machado's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 22.2%.. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 16.7% on the season to 38.9% over the last week.

The road to the majors for 32-year-old Brian Keller is admirable, but I’m fading the spot. It is unclear whether Keller will open or work as the bulk reliever, but either way, this is his first MLB appearance against a New York Yankees lineup built around power.

New York enters with an MLB-best 135 home runs, giving it a clear edge against an unproven, fastball-heavy arm likely to cover real innings. Ryan Weathers is not easy to trust, but the Yankees get the better look against an uncertain Philly pitching plan. Good to -140.

Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Tropicana Field profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Cedric Mullins will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Paul Skenes’ ERA is up to 3.43 compared to his 2.35 career average, while Cubs starter Shota Imanaga is trending up with a stingy 1.62 ERA over his last three outings. Imanaga will dominate a Pirates lineup that’s missing three everyday players and ranks 19th in runs scored as well as 20th in SLG since the All-Star break.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #8 field in the majors for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (56.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at American Family Field is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Milwaukee Brewers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Mickey Moniak's launch angle this year (22.3°) is quite a bit better than his 17.4° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colby Thomas in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Colby Thomas is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 90°.. Hitting from the opposite that Connor Prielipp throws from, Colby Thomas will have an edge in today's game.

In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) may lead us to conclude that Weston Wilson has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .208 actual batting average.. By putting up a .333 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Weston Wilson is ranked in the 80th percentile for offensive ability.. Weston Wilson grades out in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (18.1% rate since the start of last season).. Weston Wilson has paced 22.9 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 82nd percentile for power.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto can lead with his potent splitter (.178 wOBA) against a New York Mets lineup that has the lowest runs above average (-5.4) per 100 pitches against the offering this month. On the flip side, New York's bullpen (6.37 FIP this month) is the weak link, and Juan Soto will either be absent or hampered (MRI on his calf today).

JJ Bleday is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 87°.. JJ Bleday will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game.. JJ Bleday is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.