MLB Picks

We have two lefties on the mound at loanDepot park on Tuesday, but Martín Pérez and the Atlanta Braves clearly have the better matchup. The Miami Marlins lineup features five left-handed bats, which plays directly into Pérez’s strengths. His sinker-changeup combination is excellent at neutralizing left-handed power and forcing weak contact to the opposite field. Meanwhile, Braxton Garrett draws a much tougher assignment. Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected back in the lineup, and Garrett struggled badly with his command in his first start, lasting only 1.1 innings. Atlanta can also throw dangerous right-handed bats like Austin Riley at him throughout the lineup. I price the Braves closer to -155 favorites.

Chase DeLauter is batting at least .308 with an OPS of at least .964 and a wRC+ of at least 174 against 72% of Keider Montero's arsenal.

Playing away from home has been no struggle for the young buck, especially as of late. Over his last 60 plate appearances on the road, DeLauter owns a .333 BA, .415 wOBA, .943 OPS, and 33.3% line drive rate.

Recent meetings between these teams have trended low-scoring, with five of the last six hitting the Under. Burns continues to pitch like an ace, while Luzardo’s underlying metrics are far better than his ERA suggests. Despite Philly’s recent offensive improvement, neither starter is expected to get shelled, making the Under attractive at plus odds.

Ranger Suárez has been dominant lately, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts while posting a 1.96 road ERA. The Royals continue to struggle against left-handed pitching with a 2-10 record vs lefty starters and a 27th-ranked OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been elite with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA during that two-week stretch.

Two starters with sub-2.50 expected ERAs walk into two lineups that have different matchup issues. The Milwaukee Brewers' offense should score because of its patient approach, but it can still struggle from time to time because it relies on stringing hits together. Brown, who is likely a quasi-opener, going three to four innings, should have some success against that with a rested bullpen behind. Meanwhile, Jacob Misiorowski should do Miz things with a 92nd percentile barrel suppression rate among other elite metrics. I projected exactly 7 runs. 

Left-handed hitters have posted a .308 BA, .551 SLG, and .390 wOBA, while also carrying a 53% fly ball rate and 21% line drive rate against Zebby Matthews for his career at Target Field.

Against 64% of Matthews' arsenal, Yordan Alvarez owns at least a .400 BA, 1.450 OPS, and 311 wRC+. Against the remaining 36%, he still owns solid numbers.

The Pirates lead the majors in hard hit rate against left-handed pitching, ranking just ahead of the Yankees and Dodgers. That's a sign results should follow – especially facing Matthew Liberatore, who ranks in the 10th percentile in xERA.

Mitch Keller has performed much worse against left-handed hitters and the Cardinals are expected to start five, headlined by JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson. 

If you're betting home runs today, the Halos should be on your card. Jacob Lopez ranks as one of the worst starters on the board with a bottom-50 HR/FB rate and the sixth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games, right-handed hitters own eight of the 10 homers he has surrendered this year, and he’s backed by a bullpen that gives up home runs at a bottom-seven rate. There were a few names worth considering, but I’m landing on Jo Adell, who should hit higher in the order today against the lefty. All six of his home runs this season have come against southpaws, along with a .993 OPS. Mike Trout (+360) and Zach Neto (+460) were two other names I looked at in a great matchup with 75-degree temperatures and winds blowing out at Angel Stadium.

In their last 12 games away from home against right-handed pitching, the White Sox own a 116 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .778 OPS, while posting an 8.9% walk rate, 40.7% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrel rate. Not to mention, this team ranks third in first-five scoring on the road, putting up 3.03 runs per first five innings.