MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Ryan Jeffers logo
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.54
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Progressive Field's left field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Bases
David Fry logo
David Fry o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.2
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Fry in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. David Fry is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andy Pages logo
Andy Pages o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Andy Pages ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andy Pages is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Total Bases
Bryson Stott logo
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.48
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryson Stott's batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Bryson Stott has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today's game.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ New York Yankees logo NYY Tue, Jul 21 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ben Rice logo
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Ben Rice is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions of the day at 88%.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage against Bubba Chandler in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Paul Goldschmidt logo
Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 Total Bases (+152)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions of the day at 88%.. Paul Goldschmidt has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Tue, Jul 21 • 7:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
George Springer logo
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Kazuma Okamoto logo
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.52
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kazuma Okamoto is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best field in the majors for right-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu logo
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest.. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Bradish in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez logo
Carlos Narvaez o1.5 Total Bases (+224)
Projection 1.25
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Carlos Narvaez has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 13.8% to 19.2%.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Austin Riley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.15
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Andrew Vaughn logo
Andrew Vaughn o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Brett Baty logo
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.4
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Brett Baty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Sproat in today's game.. The Milwaukee Brewers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brett Baty has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. logo
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-123)
Projection 2.41
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #10 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Bryce Eldridge logo
Bryce Eldridge o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The #10 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
Projection 0.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as the league's 16th-best home run hitter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Colson Montgomery will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Rocker has a large platoon split.. Colson Montgomery's launch angle this season (23.1°) is quite a bit better than his 18° figure last season.
Total Bases
Sam Antonacci logo
Sam Antonacci o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Samuel Antonacci's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Samuel Antonacci is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Samuel Antonacci will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Over the last week, Samuel Antonacci's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 102.4-mph lately.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but it's the Cubs whom I trust more in this spot. They have been dialed in at the plate of late, and I'm expecting Framber Valdez to return to his struggles against a good-hitting Cubbies side. 

Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson logo
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Spencer Torkelson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Houston Astros logo HOU Tue, Jul 21 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
LaMonte Wade Jr. logo
LaMonte Wade Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 14th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. This year, LaMonte Wade Jr. has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 25% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena logo
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average ability, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 19th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Jeremy Pena pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to last year, Jeremy Pena has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.7% to 47% this season.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Tue, Jul 21 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dylan Crews logo
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+111)
Projection 2.16
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+126)
Projection 2.09
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Ezequiel Tovar will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+188)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Mike Trout will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game.
Total RBIs
Lars Nootbaar logo
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+201)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walbert Urena in today's game.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Let's dial up a bet on the Reds tonight behind Chase Burns and his excellent strikeout ability. The M's are the third-worst K team at home, and Burns has racked up 7+ Ks in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That'll be enough to help the Reds pick up the win. 

Total Bases
Josh Naylor logo
Josh Naylor o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.52
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Josh Naylor is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Chase Burns throws from, Josh Naylor will have an advantage in today's game.. Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
9 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the slate.. In today's matchup, Corbin Carroll is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (91st percentile).. Corbin Carroll's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 37% on the season to 22.7% in the last 14 days.
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll logo
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: a minute ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #3 field in baseball for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Perkins throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge in today's matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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