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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.52 |
+154 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -144
|
|
4.23 |
-175
|
u8.0 -112 
|
-1.5 +125 
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Valdezs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Valdezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+105
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
4.33 |
-120
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.16 |
-145
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.17 |
+128
|
u8.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -136 
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o4.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
+105 
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.68 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
-138
|
o7.5 +105
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.10 |
+125 
|
u7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -141
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
+100
|
o7.5 +102
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
4.33 |
-113
|
u7.5 -102
|
-1.5 +162
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.00 |
+135
|
o6.5 -125
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
3.95 |
-150
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +156
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+114
|
o7.0 -117
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.89 |
-130
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +170
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
o0.5+203
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+220
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.62 |
-250
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -105
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.12 |
-113
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
4.97 |
+100
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.22 |
+150
|
o6.5 -142
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.06 |
-170
|
u7.5 -150 
|
-1.5 +135
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-107
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.88 |
-105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+196
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.43 |
-155
|
o11.0 -115
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.29 |
+135
|
u11.5 -130
|
+1.5 -112
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.44 |
-129
|
o9.0 -141
|
+1.5 -275
|
|
4.88 |
+116
|
u9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +215
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)
o1.5-120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.62 |
+184
|
o7.0 -200
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.43 |
-215
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+125
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.43 |
-143
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.74 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.64 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Spencer Torkelson’s recent contact profile is encouraging, with a 50% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and .235 ISO over the last week. He also owns a 54.9% fly-ball rate at home, and Washington’s vulnerable bullpen gives him multiple opportunities to leave the yard.
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Washington’s pitching setup creates plenty of scoring potential, while the Nationals themselves have been productive against left-handed arms. That gives both sides a path to contributing offensively. Even with Detroit’s bullpen pitching well, there should be enough volatility here for this game to reach eight runs.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Pick made: 21 hours ago
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Victor Bericoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Bericoto has five homers and a solid .192 ISO across 102 plate appearances, and he sports an elite 59.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. So, in a game I’m forecasting to be low-scoring, the San Fran rookie checks out as a flier candidate to leave the yard this afternoon.
Total
u7.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Under 7.5 is in play until -115 because both teams are missing multiple impact hitters, and Oracle Park ranks 26th in Baseball Savant Park Factor and 28th in home runs. Both offenses have also been dreadful the past two weeks. Minnesota ranks 29th in xwOBA and 26th in ISO, while San Francisco checks in 24th and 22nd, respectively. There is also potential for the forecasted westerly breeze of 10-12 mph to gust closer to 20 mph and in from left-center field to provide a huge pitching advantage this afternoon.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies are trading as a 45% underdog on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to a 49% underdog against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The edge really comes down to the sense of urgency for both teams. The Phillies are locked in a three-way battle for seeding in the NL Wild Card race, while the Brewers are in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NL and have already clinched a bye into the NLDS. I'd expect the Brewers to prioritize pitch-count preservation for Logan Henderson and their high-leverage bullpen arms, while the Phillies will be managing this game with a greater sense of urgency.
Moneyline
MIL (-136)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10, and I like the pitching advantage with Logan Henderson. The right-hander owns a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last five starts. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola and a bullpen carrying a 4.34 ERA. With the Brewers owning MLB's best record and getting the better starter and relief corps, -136 is a price I'm willing to lay.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
Projection 0.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's game.. Based on Statcast data, Oneil Cruz grades out in the 84th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 28.100.. Oneil Cruz's 16% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 venue in the league for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.. Jordan Walker has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 28.66 ft/sec to 29.15 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Junior Caminero has averaged 36.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. This year, Junior Caminero's 13% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers.
Total Hits
Heliot Ramos u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team today.. Heliot Ramos's launch angle this season (6.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 12° figure last season.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.
He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 58%.
Sonny Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Cleveland Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Foster Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Sean Murphy u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sean Murphy is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Sean Murphy has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has dropped off to 7.9% this year.. Sean Murphy's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.7-mph.. Sean Murphy's launch angle this season (6.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.1° figure last season.
Total Bases
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+259)
Projection 1.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 4th-best field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. The 3rd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is expected to have the most humidity on the slate (83%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. JJ Bleday's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 35.5% to 44.9%.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+106)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. This season, Miguel Vargas has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.4 mph compared to last year's 91.8 mph mark.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 7th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average ability.. Otto Lopez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Otto Lopez has notched a .282 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Strikeouts Thrown
Kevin Gausman o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-136)
Projection 6.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kevin Gausman in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.. Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.. The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez).. It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Vic Carapazza) behind the plate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 14.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for pitchers.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cody Bradford.
Strikeouts Thrown
Cody Bradford o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130)
Projection 3.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Due to his reverse platoon split, Cody Bradford will benefit from going up against 6 batters in the projected lineup who bat from the other side in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Cody Bradford will hold that advantage today.. Cody Bradford has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 4.66 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.40 — a 1.74 K/9 gap.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Merrill Kelly o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-132)
Projection 4.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Merrill Kelly has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.. The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Connor Norby, Mickey Moniak, Zac Veen).. It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Nestor Ceja) in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Given the 0.91 disparity between Merrill Kelly's 6.38 K/9 and his 7.29 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see positive regression in future games.
Total Hits
TJ Rumfield u0.5 Total Hits (+220)
Projection 1.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects T.J. Rumfield in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates T.J. Rumfield's true offensive talent to be a .297, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .073 deviation between that mark and his actual .370 wOBA.. T.J. Rumfield's 5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 25th percentile this year.. T.J. Rumfield's 84.2-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in baseball this year: 3rd percentile.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Projection 0.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.
Strikeouts Thrown
Walbert Urena u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+114)
Projection 4.06
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walbert Urena to throw 85 pitches in today's game (10th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Felix Neon profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Travis d'Arnaud (the Angels's expected catcher today) grades out as a weak pitch framer.. The #6 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Enrique Hernandez's BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Enrique Hernandez is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 5.6%.. With a .287 wOBA in the last 14 days, Enrique Hernandez has been struggling at the plate.. Enrique Hernandez has put up a .266 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 7th percentile.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Ethan Pecko.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
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