MLB Picks

Brandon Lowe's over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI at plus money stands out as one of the best values on Friday's slate. Despite entering the second half on a cold streak, Lowe owns an 81% arsenal coverage against Gavin Williams and has consistently thrived in elite rated road matchups. Across the last three seasons, he's recorded a hit in over 90% of those spots while frequently clearing this prop. Williams has also been vulnerable to left handed hitters, allowing a .314 xBA and .437 xSLG over his last 60 faced. With extra rest from the break, Lowe is primed to bounce back.

Matthew Boyd has his flaws but he limits homers effectively and the Minnesota Twins rank 28th in OPS vs. lefties the past two months. 

Taj Bradley is a high strikeout pitcher who has held opponents to a 33% hard hit rate over his last five starts. That has helped him limit the longballs, allowing just 1.16 per nine innings.

I like the Under and would play it to -120.

Things have not gone well for Shane Bieber. He is sporting a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through just under 18 innings of work. He has also allowed a ton of power, conceding seven homers.

That puts Miguel Vargas in a very good spot. He has hit .346 vs. righties with a remarkably strong 20.4% barrel rate over his last 20 games.

He’s hitting for contact, he’s hitting for power, and Bieber is consistently giving up both.

Bet to -150.

 

 

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Coors Field grades out as the #1 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has a pitch-to-contact profile (8th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-best field in baseball for run-scoring.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 3rd-most humid conditions of the day at 80%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-best of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The #5 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.. This matchup is predicted to have the 10th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Vinnie Pasquantino will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning today.

I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.

Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated. The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. In the majors, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

Isolating starters who rank in the 45th percentile or worse in xSLG and xwOBA vs. lefties, Luis Garcia Jr. has cleared 1.5 total bases in 68.4% of his games and averaged 3.5 bases along the way.

Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches. 

This is a great spot to deal damage. Bet to -125.

Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Among all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.2°, Matt Vierling has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 20.6° figure in the past two weeks' worth of games.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Vierling's true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .062 deviation between that figure and his actual .254 wOBA.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.