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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 5, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
+147 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -155 
|
|
5.21 |
-157
|
u8.5 -118 
|
-1.5 +135 
|
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Perezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Phillies last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Wheelers last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+178)
o0.5+178
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.58 |
+147
|
o6.5 -135
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
3.62 |
-155
|
u7.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +140
|
Detroit
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Valdezs last 5 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Cleveland
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.19 |
-142
|
o9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +112 
|
|
4.65 |
+135
|
u9.5 -135
|
+1.5 -120
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
+165
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.91 |
-180
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +125
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Kikuchis last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 road games.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Pirates last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ashcrafts last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.93 |
-121
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.26 |
+118
|
u8.0 -105
|
+1.5 -148
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 9-0 in Grays last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-1 in Bassitts last 10 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+154)
o0.5+154
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
-105
|
o6.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
|
4.02 |
-105
|
u7.0 -125
|
+1.5 -188
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+227)
o0.5+227
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.23 |
-106
|
o9.5 -104
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
5.52 |
-103
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Scherzers last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lugos last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Lugos last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+104)
o1.5+104
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.66 |
+110
|
o8.0 -117
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.45 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +170
|
Minnesota
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
+115
|
o7.5 -114
|
+2.5 -481
|
|
4.48 |
-123
|
u7.5 +100
|
-2.5 +275
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Rodons last 8 starts as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Samad Taylor o0.5 Total RBIs (+369)
o0.5+369
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-105
|
o8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.52 |
-104
|
u9.0 -120
|
+1.5 -172
|
Arizona
- Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Pfaadts last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Pfaadts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Houston
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.34 |
-120
|
o10.5 -118
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
5.63 |
+110
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 -144
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+117)
o0.5+117
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+183
|
o7.0 -110
|
+2.0 -210
|
|
4.41 |
-203
|
u7.5 -125
|
-2.0 +165
|
Washington
- Under is 5-0-1 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts on grass.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Dodgers are 8-1 in Glasnows last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Dodgers are 7-1 in Glasnows last 8 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+261)
o0.5+261
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.50 |
+210
|
o7.5 -108
|
+1.5 +100
|
|
4.58 |
-240
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 -106
|
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 games as a road underdog.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+238
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.56 |
-153
|
o8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +110
|
|
|
4.24 |
+143
|
u9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -120
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 overall.
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.94 |
-105
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -240
|
|
|
4.96 |
-105
|
u8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +180
|
Atlanta
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
- Over is 10-1-1 in Phillies last 12 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.64 |
-130
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -270
|
|
|
3.92 |
+120
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +195
|
Boston
- Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.51 |
+170
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
|
4.57 |
-190
|
u7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +120
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 road games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 games as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.73 |
+147
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
|
4.32 |
-157
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +135
|
Detroit
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 overall.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Guardians are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
3.81 |
+130
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+135
|
o9.0 +100
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.46 |
-145
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Giants last 8 on grass.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.52 |
-115
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
|
5.42 |
+105
|
u10.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 road games.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Royals last 6 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.59 |
-105
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
|
4.30 |
-105
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
Houston
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 home games.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.97 |
-104
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
|
4.12 |
-105
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +155
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 road games.
- Rays are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 overall.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
ATL
@
PHI
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:05 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Martin Perez u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-122)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Martin Perez has been steady lately, allowing one earned run or fewer in five of his last six appearances. The veteran has limited barrels, owns a 1.86 ERA over his last two starts, and already tossed six scoreless against Philadelphia earlier this season.
Total Home Runs
Trea Turner o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Trea Turner has a nice history against Martin Perez, hitting .294 with an ISO just under .300.
He is also in excellent form facing Perez’ pitch mix. Turner’s average exit velocity is up nearly four miles per hour over the last 25 plate appearances, and his hard hit rate has soared to nearly 70% along the way.
DET
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell crushes left-handed pitching. He has managed a .278 ISO and .949 OPS on the year, and his numbers are trending even further upwards.
He has hit .342 with a .368 ISO and 19.2% barrel rate against southpaws over his last 25 games.
Adell also has a great track record against Framber Valdez, going 7-25 (.280 BA) with five extra base hits.
Total
u7.5 (-138)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Parker Messick has faced eight Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. lefties. The results are remarkably good, with Messick allowing two runs or less in all eight.
Framber Valdez is an elite ground ball generator and his barrel rate has improved to 5.1% over the past 30 days.
He shouldn’t give up much power, making the Under attractive to 60%.
MIL
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Hector Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hector Rodriguez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB.. This matchup is projected to have the 12th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Dustin May throws from, Hector Rodriguez will have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Garrett Mitchell u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andrew Abbott will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Mitchell today.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Garrett Mitchell today.. Garrett Mitchell has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 14 days.. Garrett Mitchell's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 96.9-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 91.5-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.. In the past 14 days, Garrett Mitchell's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.2%.
LAA
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 5 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.. Bryan Reynolds will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
Total Hits
Jared Triolo u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jared Triolo is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Home runs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all stadiums.. Jared Triolo has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 79.6-mph in the past 14 days.. Jared Triolo's launch angle this year (5.7°) is a significant dropoff from his 14.2° figure last season.. With a .280 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jared Triolo finds himself in the 9th percentile.
BOS
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Mickey Gasper o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Mickey Gasper ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mickey Gasper is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The switch-hitting Mickey Gasper will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Chris Bassitt... and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Mickey Gasper has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 23.8% in the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 16th-best batter in baseball.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Pete Alonso has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Pete Alonso will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. Pete Alonso has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.4-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 97.9-mph.
TB
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Jacob deGrom u1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+111)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
TEX (-103)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.
TOR
@
KC
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+405)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
George Springer has been making some loud contact lately, and should be able to get the barrel on Lugo, who won't overpower anyone. Springer has been extremely hot post-All-Star break, rocking a .856 OPS - let's see him connect with one tonight.
Moneyline
TOR (-110)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
The Toronto Blue Jays are winners of five of their last six, with the offense continuing to roll, scoring 26 runs across their last three games. There's not much in the way of stopping them from continuing that trend today, as Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo has struggled mightily this season, owning the highest xBA (.280) and xERA (5.16) of his career.
MIN
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Teel o1.5 Total Bases (+265)
Projection 1.14
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 1 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. The #6 park in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.. This game is predicted to have the most humidity on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Kyle Teel will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jake Rogers u1.5 Total Bases (-320)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jake Rogers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Rogers is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Jake Rogers has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 15% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. Taj Bradley will have the handedness advantage against Jake Rogers in today's game.. Jake Rogers's speed has fallen off this year. His 26.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.31 ft/sec now.
NYY
@
SD
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+685)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
I love Jazz music on a Saturday.
The left-handed matchup is not ideal on the surface, but Chisholm has hit five homers in 157 plate appearances against lefties this season. He also brings 19 home runs, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 90.8-mph average exit velocity. Ray’s primary four-seamer and slider have allowed a .426 and .409 xwOBA, respectively, while his 4.58 xERA ranks in the 38th percentile. Chisholm’s recent three-hit, home-run performance adds to the upside.
Total
u7.5 (-103)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
This Under is built around matchup-specific starting pitching. Carlos Rodon has held the current San Diego Padres to a .278 wOBA, .207 xBA and .320 xSLG across 78 career plate appearances. Robbie Ray’s overall profile is less convincing, with a his previously mentioned underlying metrics, but the New York Yankees have just a .182 xBA against him over 83 plate appearances. That is a much better matchup for Ray than his season-long numbers suggest.
Rodon’s limited workload is the biggest threat to the Under. However, the relative strength of the Yankees bullpen should be enough to keep even a flimsy Under in tact. With both lineups facing pitchers who have suppressed this specific group of hitters, I’d play Under 7.5 runs to 53%.
AZ
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Nolan Arenado o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sinkers and fastballs account for nearly 65% of Ethan Pecko’s pitches against right-handed batters. That sets up favorably for Nolan Arenado, who possesses ISOs above .230 when facing each of those pitches.
We’re still dealing with small samples with Pecko but he ranks in the fifth percentile or worse in xwOBA, xSLG, and ISO.
Moneyline
AZ (-105)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Houston Astros rank dead last in wOBA vs. righties the past month, and their xwOBA is actually lower than the results they’ve garnered.
I have more faith in the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. They sit 16th in wOBA over the same span and are facing the inexperienced Ethan Pecko, who has not been able to keep runners off the bases (1.54 WHIP).
Back Arizona to 53%.
STL
@
COL
Sat, Sep 5 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Coors Field as the best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Cole Carrigg will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Home Runs
Nathan Church o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1050)
Projection 0.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #5 venue in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.. Nathan Church will have the handedness advantage over Mason Adams in today's matchup.
WAS
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Freddie Freeman has been particularly dangerous against the four-seamer from righties, batting a ridiculous .355 with a .554 SLG.
Six of his homers have come against that pitch type – the second most on LA – and it’s also Cade Cavalli’s most common offering (32.9%).
Total
u7.5 (-134)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
We're in for a pitcher's duel between Tyler Glasnow and Cade Cavalli, who has been great for Washington down the stretch. Cavalli owns a 1.75 ERA over his last six appearances.
The Nationals have hit the team total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games, while the Dodgers have done so in 24 of their last 35 home games.
ATH
@
SEA
Sat, Sep 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+286)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Cal Raleigh is waking up again with six homers over his last 11 appearances and a .513 ISO. He gets a favorable matchup against Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed major home run damage lately, and Raleigh’s air-contact profile gives him real upside.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #2 venue in the league for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Jeffrey Springs in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball batters like Cal Raleigh are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jeffrey Springs.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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