MLB Picks

Both the Tigers and Reds rank below average in wOBA against left-handed pitchers and percentage of games scoring a run in the first inning. Detroit lefty Framber Valdez has been sharp in four of five starts (3.30 ERA and 3.28 xERA), and Cincy starter Andrew Abbott’s 5.84 ERA and 1.74 WHIP are miles above his respective 3.42 and 1.24 marks through the first 75 starts of his career, so he’s a statistical correction candidate beginning Friday.

It's been an excellent start to the season for Bradley who still hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a start yet, with one or fewer allowed in four of his five starts. He'll face his former team this evening, and Tampa's offense is on an unimpressive stretch that has them ranked 27th in OPS vs righties over the last week. With Bradley cruising and having the extra motivation of a revenge game, the juice is worth the squeeze here.

New York Mets fans finally got the breakout game they were waiting for from their new addition on Thursday, as Bichette went 3-for-5 with two runs and three RBIs. Bichette and the rest of the New York lineup should tee off on Michael Lorenzen tonight, which is why I like Bichette to pick up at least three combined hits, runs, and RBIs tonight.

The pitchers are going to have their hands full. Woodruff’s struggles keeping the ball on the ground could lead to problems, especially facing several hard-hitting lefties who profile well against his stuff.

This is not the Pirates offense of old. They rank seventh in stolen bases, eighth in runs, 8th in OBP, and 10th in homers. They are balanced and can hurt pitchers in a lot of different ways.

Meanwhile, the Brewers sit third in OPS vs. right-handed pitching at home. While Paul Skenes should be able to prevent the Brew Crew from a ceiling performance, they don’t need one with such a low total.

Munetaka Murakami just had his five-game homer streak snapped, but this may be the best matchup of that stretch. He’s 12-for-27, and every extra-base hit has left the yard. Mikolas has been one of the worst HR/FB pitchers in baseball, and his early-season struggles have pushed that even lower. The only thing that can slow Murakami is swing-and-miss, which isn’t a major concern against Mikolas. 

McCullers' 32% chase rate should lead to some success, as I mentioned above. Beyond the situational aspect, the Yankees are starting to revert to some of the same things we've seen out of them over the past five years: a lot of swing and miss.

They have now climbed to third overall in the league-wide whiff rate. I'll back McCullers to lean into that and Will Warren to manage the game enough to keep this Under.

The Cards rank 25th in wOBA and 24th in ISO against right-handed hurlers, and Mariners starter George Kirby is dealing to the tune of a 2.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .225 average and .282 wOBA. So, I expect Kirby to cruise, while the Seattle lineup also does damage against St. Louis righty Andre Pallante given his 5.43 xFIP through four 2026 starts.

The Dodgers offense has been flat this week, but this is still possibly the most dangerous lineup in the majors. Kyle Tucker sits in the middle of the lineup and has knocked in 13 runs in his first 24 games in Los Angeles. With the Dodger bats set to tee off on Jameson Taillon tonight, I like Tucker to knock in at least one run.