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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 30, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.89 |
-115 
|
o7.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
3.77 |
+100 
|
u7.5 -134 
|
+1.5 -178
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mahles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+266
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
+128
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -177 
|
|
4.46 |
-144
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +157
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-0 in White Sox last 7 road games.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Burkes last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+120
|
o6.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.42 |
-135 
|
u6.5 +102
|
-1.5 +166
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Grays last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+116
|
o7.0 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.33 |
-134
|
u7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 Wild Card Round games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 2 of a series.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Wild Card Round home games.
- Padres are 5-0 in Pivettas last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+271)
o0.5+271
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 7-0 in White Sox last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Houston
- Under is 9-1 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 Wild Card Round games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.04 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts overall.
NY Yankees
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Coles last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cubs last 9 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 Wild Card Round games.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 Wild Card Round home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
PHI
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Game Prop
YRFI/NRFI (Yes: +115)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This is the best projected Over on the slate, with a near 17% projected ROI on the flat total of 7, which isn't available on Polymarket, and 8.76 runs projected. I'm pivoting and hitting the run in the first inning at plus money. Playoff baseball is a little different than Games 1 through 162. Batters are amped up and can handle velocity much better, while the top of the order becomes even more dangerous. Yesterday, three of the four games saw a run in the first inning, with eight total runs scored in the first two innings. Tyler Mahle is coming off his worst start of the second half, while Cristopher Sánchez has given up 18 runs over his last five starts and 31-plus innings, along with more than a hit per inning. I like runs in this game, and I like them to come early. I'd buy this to 50%.
Moneyline
PHI (-109)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 50%. Cristopher Sanchez gives Philadelphia a strong chance to extend the series after posting a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season. Tyler Mahle has been less convincing lately, carrying a 4.46 FIP across his last two outings while allowing 1.64 HR/9.
CHW
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 30 • 5:00 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Sean Burke u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-155)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Burke finished the regular season with a career-high 172 1/3 innings, and the workload caught up with the 26-year-old righty down the stretch. He posted a 4.57 xERA and 5.41 xFIP through his final seven starts while striking out five or fewer batters in five of those outings with a meager 19.9% strikeout rate. Game 2 won’t be easy, either. The Astros finished the regular season first in ISO and sixth in wRC+ against righties, so Burke will have his hands full navigating the Houston lineup.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Alvarez paced qualified hitters in wOBA while ranking third in ISO against right-handed pitchers, and he’s also shown off in the playoffs with an equally impressive .944 OPS across 252 plate appearances. White Sox starter Sean Burke is making his first postseason start, and he posted a so-so 4.20 xERA and 4.18 xFIP while allowing a healthy 44.1% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters in the second half. It all adds up to a favorable matchup for Alvarez.
BOS
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Total
o6.5 (-119)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Max Fried’s postseason struggles include a 5.31 ERA and seven appearances with four or more earned runs allowed, including getting rocked for seven ERs vs Toronto last season. At 6.5, we don’t need another total meltdown to cash the Over. The Yankees scored nine yesterday, but even a modest follow-up could do the trick. Sonny Gray offers fewer reasons for concern, however, Boston used five bullpen arms yesterday, leaving fewer fresh options behind him. There’s enough evidence here to expect some noise from both offenses.
Strikeouts Thrown
Sonny Gray o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Gray recorded 149 strikeouts in 29 starts, a little over five per outing. The Yankees have struck out in 30% of their plate appearances over the past week, giving him chances to reach five even if New York eventually scratches out a couple of runs.
His sweeper can finish an at-bat, while the grounders help him keep his pitch count manageable between strikeouts. Six is the sensible threshold here. The likely short leash is the biggest issue but there are plenty of swing profiles in this lineup that Gray should have success against.
CHC
@
SD
Wed, Sep 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Hits
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Hits (+200)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 40%. Fernando Tatis Jr. is scorching hot, posting four multi-hit games in his last five appearances while batting .421 over the last week. His 66.7% hard-hit rate backs up the results, and he’s also 8-for-23 lifetime against Kevin Gausman. Another multi-hit effort is firmly in play.
Total Hits
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total Hits (-160)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 63%. Seiya Suzuki has been seeing the ball well, batting .350 over his last five games with five hits across his previous four contests. Nick Pivetta has allowed plenty of hard contact lately, and Suzuki has already gone 2-for-7 against him. One hit looks very attainable.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
