MLB Picks

Both offenses enter in excellent form, with San Diego carrying a 159 wRC+ and strong recent power, while Atlanta owns a 150 wRC+ and .229 ISO over the last week. Canning’s hard-contact issues and Atlanta’s shaky bullpen create multiple scoring paths for this modest 7.5-run total this afternoon. 

The Cleveland Guardians don’t have gaudy numbers but the offense is potent when healthy, and we’re starting to see that – they’ve scored 5+ runs in five of the last seven.

Minnesota may not be a team that comes to mind when thinking of prolific offenses. However, they rank first – yes, first! – in ISO on the road vs. righties.

Play to -125.

Bieber has been getting hit hard, but the recent strikeout numbers are encouraging with 10 Ks over his last 10+ innings. He can still be a strikeout-per-inning pitcher when the stuff is there, and he has already reached 97 pitches in one of his five starts this season. A six-inning leash is very realistic. He still owns a 27% CSW rate over some rocky outings. The Rays are heading home, creating a getaway-game angle that should help Bieber. He is also much tougher on left-handed hitters, and Toronto's only available lefty out of the bullpen is Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA. The Blue Jays also used six relievers last night, which only increases the chance Bieber gets every opportunity to work deep. Do I think Bieber can get hit? Yes. Do I think he has enough leash to reach six innings and strike out five at plus money? Also yes. If the stuff is there, this could cash comfortably. If he gets hit, the volume still gives him a chance. I'm playing this to +105/+100.

Dillon Dingler continues to offer value against right-handed pitching because he's a true reverse-splits hitter who crushes righties. He owns a .928 OPS against RHPs this season, and 18 of his 22 home runs have come against them. He's also in the middle of a power binge after launching three homers in the Cubs series while going 7-for-12 with a ridiculous 2.032 OPS at Wrigley. Detroit gets Triple-A arm Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA paints a much prettier picture than his underlying numbers. His 5.61 xERA and 5.68 FIP suggest regression is coming, and his LOB% and BABIP have been carrying him. This is a great home run price for a reverse-splits hitter in excellent form against a pitcher who has been living on borrowed time.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.