MLB Picks

Despite a couple of rough outings, Paul Skenes remains one of baseball's premier strikeout pitchers. He still owns a 29% strikeout rate over his last five starts, and that climbs to nearly 32.5% at home this season. His Batters-Box trends are even more encouraging, recording 6+ strikeouts in 79% of elite-rated starts over the last three seasons and 81.81% of games with an elite strikeout percentage. Milwaukee also has four hitters with strikeout rates above 25.4% over their last 60 plate appearances. I like this matchup for Skenes to finish the first half with a strong strikeout performance.

James Wood is my favorite home run target of the day as he draws Yankees starter Will Warren. Warren has struggled against left handed hitters recently, allowing a 45% hard hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and just a 15% ground ball rate over his last 30 batters faced. Meanwhile, Wood has elite matchup coverage and has been crushing right handed pitching, generating a 66.7% hard hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate over his last 30 at bats. With his power profile and Warren’s recent struggles elevating the baseball, Wood is in a premium spot to leave the yard.

The Phillies are 12-2 behind Zack Wheeler in 2026, and the motivated All-Star snub has been fanning batters left and right of late (24 Ks last two starts). Tarik Skubal has been homer-prone in his last six outings (nine dingers), and that won't work vs. a Philly lineup ranked sixth in longballs this season. Play to -115.

Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda continues to be one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, making him an appealing target in this matchup against Mariners right hander Emerson Hancock. Aranda has thrived against right handed pitching, posting a .353 batting average, .433 OBP, and .923 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances. Hancock has struggled with left handed hitters, allowing elevated contact and hard hit rates, especially away from home. With Aranda holding nearly 92% arsenal coverage against Hancock’s pitch mix and the price sitting at -123, this is a strong value spot I would play up to -130.

Entering Sunday, Germán Márquez owns the worst pitcher rating on the Batters-Box slate, with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. He also faces a loaded Blue Jays lineup featuring five elite rated hitters and four strong rated bats. Márquez has a 6.23 ERA, 5.64 xERA, and 1.61 WHIP over his last three starts. I like Toronto, but only up to -130.

Of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ core bats, it is Andy Pages who stands above the rest with a .364 on base percentage.

Pages has scored in 59.3% of his games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, and in eight of 11 with a pre-game total of 9.0 or higher. This afternoon’s contest sits at 9.5.

Bet to -155.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.