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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 6, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.43 |
-136 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +115 
|
|
4.10 |
+135 
|
u9.0 -125 
|
+1.5 -120
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 6-0 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Harrisons last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Singers last 8 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+159
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+100
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.96 |
-106 
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -178 
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Braves last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 14-2 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 5-0 in Nolas last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 starts overall.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total RBIs (+309)
o0.5+309
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-127
|
o7.0 -119
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.75 |
+120 
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Tolles last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 3-0-1 in Bradishs last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Bradishs last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Andruw Monasterio o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
o0.5+1200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 |
+170
|
o7.0 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.64 |
-190
|
u7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +118
|
LA Angels
- Under is 8-0 in Angels last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Pirates last 7 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+259)
o0.5+259
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.67 |
+145
|
o6.5 -124
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.51 |
-155
|
u7.5 -145
|
-1.5 +138
|
Detroit
- Under is 8-0 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-0 in Jobes last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0 in Jobes last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Williams' last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
o0.5+181
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
-140
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.96 |
+130
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
Chi. Cubs
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cubs last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 10-1-1 in Cubs last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
o0.5+184
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+143
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.85 |
-153
|
u8.0 -107
|
-1.5 +140
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Giants last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Mets are 8-0 in Scotts last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+216)
o0.5+216
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.28 |
-115
|
o9.0 -136
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
5.05 |
+105
|
u9.5 +100
|
+1.5 -150
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Dobnaks last 4 starts overall.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+157)
o0.5+157
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-104
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -215
|
|
4.40 |
-105
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +170
|
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 8-0 in Rodriguezs last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 8-0 in Rodriguezs last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-0 in Diamondbacks last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Houston
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 home games.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Astros last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.80 |
-104
|
o7.0 -148
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
4.09 |
-105
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +195
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Seymours last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Seymours last 4 starts overall.
- Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 5-0 in Gores last 5 home starts.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.78 |
-130
|
o11.0 -112
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.73 |
+120
|
u15.0 -500
|
+1.5 -130
|
St. Louis
- Under is 7-0-1 in Leahys last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Gordons last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Gordons last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
o1.5-103
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-110
|
o7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.19 |
+101
|
u7.5 -150
|
+1.5 -178
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Coles last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Yankees last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Coles last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Kings last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+329)
o0.5+329
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.38 |
+175
|
o5.0 -481
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.09 |
-190
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 overall.
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games as a road underdog.
Seattle
- Over is 7-0 in Mariners last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Carlos Cortes o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1050)
o0.5+1050
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.62 |
+130
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
5.21 |
-140
|
u8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +146
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Obers last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 overall.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Hudsons last 6 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+168)
o0.5+168
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
+177
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.73 |
-195
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +112
|
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Alvarezs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Alvarezs last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Alvarezs last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Wrobleskis last 6 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+231)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Braves last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games.
- Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 overall.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.60 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 9-2 in Marlins last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.97 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.03 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Angels last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 23-7-1 in Angels last 31 games as an underdog.
Boston
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. American League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.18 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.16 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Over is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1 in Royals last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Royals last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.60 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 overall.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 home games.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.13 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 vs. American League Central.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Nationals last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Nationals last 8 games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
San Francisco
- Over is 6-1-2 in Giants last 9 overall.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Giants last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Giants last 9 on grass.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.56 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.25 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 games as a road favorite.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.
MIL
@
CIN
Sun, Sep 6 • 12:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-109)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Elly De La Cruz has been seeing the ball extremely well lately, making him one of the most appealing Reds bats to target this afternoon. Over his last 10 games, De La Cruz owns a .615 SLG with a 62.1% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. He has also surpassed this prop in 51.61% of his 31 elite ratings this season. Meanwhile, Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a 19.5% barrel rate and 7.59 HR/9 over his last 60 batters faced. With De La Cruz’s speed and on-base ability, this HRR price is worth attacking.
Earned Runs Allowed
Kyle Harrison o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+125)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Reds are rarely an enjoyable team to back offensively, but this matchup presents a favorable opportunity. Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Kyle Harrison has struggled in his last few outings, posting a 6.94 ERA and 1.63 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate over 13%. Harrison also draws four elite-rated hitters and another with a strong rating in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Cincinnati has been swinging a hot bat lately, posting a 116 wRC+, .343 wOBA and .783 OPS over its last 12 games. The strikeouts remain a concern, but with Harrison struggling, backing the Reds feels fun here.
ATL
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
Acuna has homered in two of the last three games and is 8-for-14 with five RBI over that span. He has a 224 OPS+ over the last week with a .440/.481/.720 slash line. He’s also hit .333 with 1.068 OPS against Nola in his career, with four long balls.
Total
u8.5 (-123)
Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst
Nola has been lights out over the last month, and so has Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.48 ERA and a WHIP below 1 since getting dealt to Atlanta at the deadline. The teams have combined for 13 runs in the first two games of the series.
BOS
@
BAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total Home Runs (-1649)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
Total
u7.5 (-105)
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
LAA
@
PIT
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. PNC Park projects as the #3 field in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the opposite that Walbert Urena throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams today.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+247)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. PNC Park profiles as the #3 venue in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Mike Trout's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 44.2% on the season to 66.7% in the past week's worth of games.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Trout's true offensive ability to be a .366, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .020 deviation between that figure and his actual .346 wOBA.
DET
@
CLE
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total Home Runs (+625)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Travis Bazzana appears to be just fine after getting drilled in the hand by the Blue Jays a few days ago. He has since made two starts, putting together multi-hit performances in each.
Detroit starter Jackson Jobe is a fastball-first pitcher, and Bazzana is sporting a .312 average, .271 ISO, and near 50% hard hit rate against righty fastballs.
Total
u7.5 (-119)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Detroit's .111 ISO against righties the past month slots them dead last, and Gavin Williams’ home run suppression numbers are much better at home.
Jobe is not near the talent Williams is but the Cleveland Guardians sit 30th in barrel rate against righties the last 30 days. They aren’t hitting for much power, which significantly lowers their offensive ceiling.
Play to 54%.
CHC
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Seiya Suzuki projects as the 20th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki's launch angle in recent games (26.6° in the past 7 days) is considerably better than his 18.6° seasonal angle.. With a .384 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Seiya Suzuki grades out in the 97th percentile for offensive ability.
Total Bases
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Michael Busch is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Phillips today.. Michael Busch's launch angle of late (24.9° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15.9° seasonal angle.. Michael Busch has posted a .376 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
SF
@
NYM
Sun, Sep 6 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the game.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Juan Soto can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Bryce Eldridge o1.5 Total Bases (+172)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Eldridge in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Bryce Eldridge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Christian Scott throws from, Bryce Eldridge will have an edge today.. Bryce Eldridge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Bryce Eldridge's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 47.1% on the season to 65.4% over the last 14 days.
TOR
@
KC
Sun, Sep 6 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Kazuma Okamoto has hit seven of his 28 dingers against the sinker, which is Randy Dobnak’s most common pitch (39.4%).
Kauffman Stadium a lso is a very hitter-friendly ballpark, tied for fifth in Park Factor according to Statcast (102).
Moneyline
TOR (-120)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Randy Dobnak's xERA ranks in the 21st percentile (4.79), while his xBA is in the second percentile (.290).
He’ll face a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has been on fire since Aug. 28. Toronto is 7-1 over that span with a .283 team batting average (2nd) and a .347 wOBA (4th).
AZ
@
HOU
Sun, Sep 6 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Nelson Velazquez u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nelson Velazquez is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. This year, Nelson Velazquez has been pinch hit for in 52% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #27 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-highest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Isaac Paredes u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #27 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-highest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.
TB
@
TEX
Sun, Sep 6 • 2:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Justin Foscue u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Justin Foscue in the 9th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. 55% of the time that Justin Foscue has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the worst stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-deepest.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Jonny DeLuca u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jonny DeLuca's BABIP skill is projected in the 25th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jonny DeLuca is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the worst stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field's centerfield fences are the 6th-deepest.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
STL
@
COL
Sun, Sep 6 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Brett Sullivan u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Sullivan in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Brett Sullivan is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. This year, Brett Sullivan has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.. Brett Sullivan has been lucky this year, compiling a .309 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .277 — a .032 difference.. Ranked in the 24th percentile, Brett Sullivan's average exit velocity of 86.3 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (-150)
Projection 2.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to more offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 89°.
NYY
@
SD
Sun, Sep 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-139)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
With how poorly the Padres have been swinging the bat lately and how well Gerrit Cole and Michael King have been on the rubber, this game should stay under this low total.
Cole has been allowing a ton of hard contact over his last five starts, but that comes with being a heavy fastball pitcher. He still has a 1.12 WHIP over that stretch. King has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls across his last five starts, posting a 1.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
This feels like a 3-2 ballgame.
Moneyline
NYY (-109)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Very simple get-in-and-get-out reasoning: The San Diego Padres have been lifeless at the dish. Over their last 12 games, they own an 82 wRC+, .128 ISO and .631 OPS while producing just a 5.9% barrel rate. That lineup now draws New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has been nails over his last five starts, owning a 2.97 ERA and 3.02 xERA while allowing just a 3.49% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
ATH
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total Home Runs (+610)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Lawrence Butler has been on a tear since the beginning of August, hitting .355 with a 137 wRC+. Butler has a 9.2% barrel rate and 51.7% hard-hit rate during that span, meaning that he's been elevating and celebrating a lot.
Bryan Woo has allowed a lot of loud contact to left-handed hitters during the last 30 days: 11.4% barrel rate and a 65.7% hard-hit rate.
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Seattle's bats have not had success against left-handed starters since the All-Star break, ranking 24th in wRC+ during the first five innings of games when facing a southpaw. Gage Jump has been tagged for some crooked numbers in recent outings, but this matchup is still likely to be an uphill challenge for the Mariners offense.
Bryan Woo owns a 2.89 ERA and 4.25 xERA since the beginning of August, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts during that span.
MIN
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 6 • 6:20 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-109)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
I'm on the Over for two units down to 54%.
I've covered why I think Ober will struggle here enough which means the White Sox should do the heavy lifting. There's a bit of guesswork on the other side with a semi-bullpen profile game, however, Sean Newcomb unlikely to be available Sunday, removing one of Chicago's better late-inning arms. For me there's a real crooked number threat posed by Chicago so anything the Twins do is an added bonus, however, a thinner White Sox pen behind a short-outing opener does give Minnesota its own window to score. Two lineups with real paths to damage is the Over profile I want.
Spread
CHW -1.5 (+140)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Minnesota Twins arm Bailey Ober ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in K rate and whiff rate, and his fastball sits in the bottom 1st percentile for velocity in baseball.
That's a specific problem against a Chicago White Sox lineup that already ranks above MLB average in both fly-ball rate (27.8%) and barrel rate (8.4%): they don't need to grind through counts against a low-whiff arm; they need to lift the ball, which is exactly what his profile will invite.
On the other side, you'll get Bryan Hudson as an opener against a lineup he should have success against for at least one frame. Jose Urquidy follows him in an expected bulk role. He hasn't had a great season, but the underlying metrics tell a different story: an actual ERA exceeding 5 but an expected ERA at around 3. I'm banking on some of that positive regression coming here against a below-average offense. I'd play this to 41%.
WAS
@
LAD
Sun, Sep 6 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
James Wood o0.5 Total Home Runs (+350)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
While James Wood is more productive facing righties, the power numbers vs. southpaws (17.3% barrel rate, 53.8% hard hit rate) are still outstanding.
He has faced Justin Wrobleski three times in his young career. He walked in one of them, and homered in the two at-bats.
Total
o8.5 (+100)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Andrew Alvarez has posted a 4.41 xERA over 10 starts in hitter-friendly conditions this season, and favorable weather is projected tonight.
Justin Wrobleski pitches well in stretches but is vulnerable to power. He has allowed 1.45 HR/9 this year, and the Nationals have a lot more pop with the recent return of James Wood.
Target the Over to 52%.
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First Five Innings MLB Picks
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MLB Picks And Parlays
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