Atlanta @ St. Louis picks

Recording 93 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Erick Fedde ranks in the 86th percentile.. John Tumpane profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics in all categories, and Erick Fedde will hold that advantage in today's game.. Erick Fedde has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 5.46 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.14 — a 1.68 K/9 deviation.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Aaron Bummer is projected to throw 33 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of the day.. Busch Stadium grades out as the #27 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Aaron Bummer in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Austin Riley is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Austin Riley has notched a .342 BABIP this year, placing in the 88th percentile.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

As it relates to his home run ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Matt Olson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Sean Murphy is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Sean Murphy has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (26.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Erick Fedde has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Murphy.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.

Nolan Gorman projects as the 19th-best home run hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Typically, bats like Nolan Gorman who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Joey Wentz.. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's game.. Batters such as Michael Harris II with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Erick Fedde who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.