The Philadelphia Phillies hold a seven-game lead over the New York Mets in the NL East as the two teams prepare for a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park starting Monday, September 8.
Leading my Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks is New York superstar Juan Soto.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets vs Phillies prediction
Mets vs Phillies best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits+ runs+RBI (-125)
Mets vs Phillies best bet analysis
New York Mets star Juan Soto has been automatic at the dish during a nine-game hitting streak with 12 runs, 14 RBI, and a mammoth 1.720 OPS.
He’s also hit the Over in this market in eight of the nine games and draws a favorable matchup against Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola.
Nola hasn’t pitched as badly as his 6.78 ERA and 1.51 WHIP would suggest, with his underlying 3.85 xFIP a solid mark. He’s just been tuned up with a .344 BABIP and 62.1% strand rate.
The nitty gritty is he’s likely to be the bearer of some bad luck, but even if/when statistical correction kicks in, Nola isn’t intimidating on the bump with his best days in the rearview mirror.
Of course, Soto has also homered off Nola three times and sports a career .979 against the veteran.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay analysis
The Mets have rolling rookie Nolan McLean lined up to face the Phillies, and he’s won each of his four big-league starts with a tidy 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 2.74 xFIP.
Additionally, the Mets pace the majors in wOBA while averaging 6.7 runs per game across the past 30 days, so I’m expecting the New York bats to put runs on the board against Nola, while McLean largely holds the Philadelphia lineup in check.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper is mired in a minor slump with a 5-for-32 run at the dish across his past eight games.
Still, the slugger has hit the Over in this market in four of the eight, and he sports a high-end .370 wOBA, .246 ISO, and .872 OPS against righties for the campaign. Tonight is a perfect slump-busting opportunity.
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Philadelphia +105
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mets vs Phillies trend
The New York Mets have hit the Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Monday, September 8, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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