Washington @ St. Louis props

When it comes to his batting average, Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year. His .290 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .265. Placing in the 7th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.12 ft/sec this year, Alec Burleson is not very quick.

Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium's right field fences are the 2nd-deepest. CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Last season, CJ Abrams had a launch angle of 13.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 9.4°. Despite posting a .361 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes CJ Abrams has had some very good luck given the .039 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322. The standard deviation of CJ Abrams's launch angle this year (31.4°) is in the 5th percentile. A high figure like this tends to lead to a lower rate of base hits.

When estimating his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, James Wood will have an advantage in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Mike Soroka throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage today. Victor Scott II will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30.05 ft/sec this year, Victor Scott II is notably quick. With a .322 BABIP this year, Victor Scott II grades out in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup. Bats such as Nathaniel Lowe with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Josh Bell is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Josh Bell has had bad variance on his side this year. His .301 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328. Josh Bell has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 79th percentile with a 1.71 K/BB rate.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Batters such as Nolan Arenado with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Soroka who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. In terms of plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's ability is quite strong, putting up a 1.51 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Brady House hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.283) provides evidence that Brady House has had bad variance on his side this year with his .254 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Mike Soroka throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mike Soroka. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Nolan Gorman has been unlucky this year. His .215 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Daylen Lile will have an edge in today's game. Daylen Lile has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite well in recent games, putting up a 30° angle on such balls in the past week's worth of games. Daylen Lile has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .281 figure is considerably lower than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Pedro Pages will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pedro Pages's true offensive ability to be a .283, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .023 difference between that figure and his actual .260 wOBA.

Masyn Winn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (17.2°) is a significant increase over his 13° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Willson Contreras has suffered from bad luck this year. His .334 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .369.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitters such as Jacob Young with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. In comparison to his 85.4-mph average last year, Jacob Young's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 87.7 mph. Jacob Young has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .234 mark is a good deal lower than his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Yohel Pozo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Riley Adams has been unlucky this year, notching a .189 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .095 disparity. Riley Adams's 95.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.8% to 51.2%.

Thomas Saggese has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.