Toronto @ Boston props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions on the schedule today at 39%. Among every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite posting a .346 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Romy Gonzalez has experienced some positive variance given the .029 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317. With a 4.58 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Romy Gonzalez has demonstrated weak plate discipline, placing in the 11th percentile.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions on the schedule today at 39%. Walker Buehler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Springer today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for George Springer in today's game.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions on the schedule today at 39%. Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage against Bo Bichette in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bo Bichette today.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions on the schedule today at 39%. Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. faces a tough challenge today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bats such as Roman Anthony with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Eric Lauer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Nathan Lukes is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Nathan Lukes will have an edge today. Nathan Lukes has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Tyler Heineman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jarren Duran will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 44.7% on the season to 50% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. The 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Andres Gimenez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Andres Gimenez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.8% to 17.1%.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Addison Barger will have an edge in today's matchup. Addison Barger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Addison Barger has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 8.8% rate last year to 14.3% this year.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an advantage in today's game. Rob Refsnyder pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alejandro Kirk has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Alejandro Kirk has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season's 89.3-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Jonatan Clase pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand today. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Trevor Story will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage over Eric Lauer today. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have an advantage in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ernie Clement pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ernie Clement has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last year's 85.3-mph average. As it relates to plate discipline, Ernie Clement's talent is quite impressive, putting up a 1.76 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 78th percentile.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Nate Eaton will have an advantage today. Nate Eaton hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nate Eaton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Abraham Toro has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

David Hamilton has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.