Toronto @ Boston picks

Walker Buehler has been a colossal disappointment in his first season with Boston, entering Sunday with a 6.29 ERA. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have teed off on left-handers like Eric Lauer, posting a .773 OPS against southpaws. Expect runs aplenty at the notoriously hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s had a strong June with an .384 OBP while drawing one more walk than he has strikeouts (10:9). He’s also crossed home plate 17 times in 23 games this month and with Walker Buehler's propensity to allow high run totals, I expect Vladdy to cross home plate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eric Lauer to throw 77 pitches in this game (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Mark Wegner) calling pitches in this game.. Fenway Park ranks as the #29 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Eric Lauer (38.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Boston's projected offense.. Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Eric Lauer in today's game.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 15.6% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Bats such as Roman Anthony with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Eric Lauer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

When estimating his home run ability, Trevor Story ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand today.. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s judgement, Eric Lauer's overall pitching talent ranks in the 19th percentile out of all SPs in the majors right now.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eric Lauer to throw 77 pitches in this game (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Mark Wegner) calling pitches in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best field in baseball for batting average.. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Bats such as Roman Anthony with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Eric Lauer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Eric Lauer throws from, Nate Eaton will have an advantage today.. Nate Eaton hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nate Eaton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jarren Duran will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 44.7% on the season to 50% in the past week.

Recording 92.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Walker Buehler places him the 81st percentile.. Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in MLB.. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.. Because flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Walker Buehler and his 44.4% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this matchup going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.. Walker Buehler will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats in all categories.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 15.6% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.