New York @ Pittsburgh picks

The Pirates haven’t scored more than two runs in a game Keller has started since May 2, a stretch of nine starts that includes a 2-1 loss to the Mets back on May 13.

Soto has caught fire to lead the majors in OPS (1.245) across his past 26 games while piling up 26 runs, 29 hits and 20 RBI. He’s hit the Over in this market in 16 of 26, too, and will face Pittsburgh Pirates righty MItch Keller on Friday. Keller has surrendered a .265 batting average and .339 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the past three years while sporting a 4.72 ERA, and Soto also ranks third in wOBA, ISO and OPS against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of the 2023 campaign.

Mets southpaw David Peterson has a 2.98 ERA through 15 starts. He has pitched to a sizzling 1.20 ERA with an OBA of .100 in the opening frame. The Pirates are 29th in the majors in OPS (.640) with that number shrinking to .606 against lefties. Meanwhile, the Mets plate a run in the first inning in just 21.9% of their road games, tied with the Rockies for the worst number in the NL.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Extreme groundball batters like Tyrone Taylor tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.5°, Tyrone Taylor has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23° angle over the past two weeks.. Compared to last year, Tyrone Taylor has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.5% to 18% this season.. Tyrone Taylor has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .268 figure is a fair amount lower than his .305 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.. Bryan Reynolds will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games today (84%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have an edge today.. Andrew McCutchen will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in MLB.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's matchup.. Juan Soto has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 16.4% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past 14 days.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Brett Baty will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today's matchup.. Brett Baty has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph mark.. When it comes to his batting average, Brett Baty has experienced some negative variance this year. His .225 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .266.. Using Statcast metrics, Brett Baty is in the 80th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 24.500.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Joey Bart is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Joey Bart will have an advantage today.. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Mitch Keller.. Ronny Mauricio's launch angle lately (31° in the past week) is considerably higher than his 12.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Francisco Lindor has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week.. Compared to his seasonal average of 13°, Francisco Lindor has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.9° mark over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 7th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.