Toronto @ Cleveland picks

Let's roll with the Blue Jays here as they have extra motivation to do well following a series loss vs. the lowly White Sox. Another angle I like to play here is fading a team in its first game back after an extended road trip. The Guardians went 4-5 on that trip, and the offense has been inconsistent this year, which is another reason I trust Eric Lauer to turn in a gem. 

The Blue Jays have unlocked something putting Barger in between Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the lineup. It makes the lineup more dangerous and gives Barger more pitches to hit. He already has eight home runs this season and it doesn't appear to be a fluke as he ranks in the 91st percentile in xSLG. Logan Allen ranks in the 20th percentile in xERA and has reverse splits, meaning lefties hit him harder than righties. There is also a helpful wind gusting out to right field at Progressive tonight.

It's been a disappointing year for Guerrero who is batting .279 while slugging .442 — the lowest number since his rookie season. That said, Vladdy's xBA (.325) and xSLG (.544) are significantly higher which suggests positive regression on the horizon. Guerrero has also been crushing lefties, slugging .541 against them, and he'll have the platoon advantage against southpaw Logan Allen today. Allen is in the bottom 20th percentile in xERA (4.68) and barrel rate which is bad news against Vladdy who is in the top 10th percentile in barrel rate (15.1%).

When estimating his home run ability, Addison Barger ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 venue in the game for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Addison Barger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all parks.. George Springer will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Allen in today's game.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Alejandro Kirk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Allen in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonatan Clase in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Jonatan Clase pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

David Fry is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. David Fry will have the handedness advantage against Eric Lauer in today's matchup.. David Fry pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Addison Barger ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 venue in the game for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Addison Barger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Austin Hedges will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eric Lauer today.. Austin Hedges pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Austin Hedges will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all parks.. George Springer will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Allen in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for right-handed base hits.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an advantage today.