The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a bit of a disappointing weekend but have a chance to bounce back as they head to Progressive Field to open a three-game set with the Cleveland Guardians.
This is not the same Guardians of years past; the lineup is not as scrappy, and the pitching has taken a big step back. We’ll see that tonight when they hand the ball to Logan Allen.
My Blue Jays predictions break down why Addison Barger is the best man to take advantage of this American League matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for June 24
- Best bet
Addison Barger Over 1.0 total bases
(-115 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Addison Barger Over 1.5 total bases
Addison Barger Over 0.5 RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+480 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Barger to Bank In Against Allen
Addison Barger Over 1.0 total bases (-115 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a great opportunity to get back on track in this opening game against the Cleveland Guardians.
That’s because the Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to Logan Allen. The 26-year-old left-hander has spent much of 2025 battling consistency and command issues, which have resulted in some uneven results.
Allen doesn’t exactly have strikeout stuff; he ranks in the 15th percentile in strikeout rate and relies on keeping hitters off balance by changing speeds. And when he’s not locating his pitches he’s been getting hit.
Allen owns a 4.68 expected ERA while giving up a .255 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 20th and 40th percentiles, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
The other funny thing about Allen is that he’s got reverse splits. Meaning left-handed hitters have had more success against him. Lefties are hitting .308 with a .874 OPS vs. Allen this season.
That has my sights set on Addison Barger.
The Blue Jays have unlocked something, putting Barger in between Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the lineup.
The Blue Jays' lineup is more dangerous this way, and it means Barger will get more pitches to hit. He has already whacked eight home runs this season, and it doesn’t appear to be a fluke. He ranks in the 90th percentile in xBA and the 91st in xSLG.
There is also a nice wind gusting out to right at Progressive Field tonight. I don’t hate Barger to hit a dinger at +400, but for our best bet purposes, let’s take the Over on his total bases. Something he has done in 11 of his last 21 games.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Addison Barger Over 1.5 total bases
Addison Barger Over 0.5 RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Let’s double down on Barger here and make the connection that one of those big hits results in driving in a run. Barger has 22 RBIs in his last 29 games and two in the last five since being moved to the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays’ lineup.
The other guy Logan Allen has to watch out for is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Duh.
One thing Allen has going for him is limiting hard contact, but Vladdy’s power is so natural that he can take what Allen gives him and still crush it.
Guerrero ranks in the 100th percentile in xBA this season and the 94th in xSLG. He’s also 3-for9 in his career vs. Allen with a .622 xSLG in his career vs. Allen. Over total bases for Vladdy, too.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, June 24, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Eric Lauer (3-1, 2.29 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Logan Allen (5-4, 4.21 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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