Boston @ New York picks

New York has hit lefties well – leading baseball in wRC+ -- and while the Red Sox have done this as well their numbers against ground-ballers should hurt them here. New York has also lowered its strikeout rate in the last week and continues to walk, which Crochet has been burned by before this year. Overall, this one should be very low-scoring, but the Yankees represent one of the best offenses in the league over the last two weeks and are in a great matchup against a ground-ball arm. Boston’s in a bad spot and ranks in the bottom half of the league offensively in the last 14 days. The choice is clear.

When assessing his home run ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Trent Grisham pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage in today's game.. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Trent Grisham has put up a .355 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions on the schedule today (82%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Aaron Judge will have the upper hand in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Yarbrough in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Yarbrough has a large platoon split.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. In comparison to his 89.5-mph average last year, Rob Refsnyder's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.3 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 76th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most humid conditions on the schedule today (79%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Trevor Story will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Yarbrough today... and moreover, Yarbrough has a large platoon split.. In the past 7 days, Trevor Story's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 25%.. Trevor Story has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 102.4-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions on the schedule today (82%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Romy Gonzalez will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Yarbrough in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Yarbrough has a large platoon split.. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions on the schedule today (83%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. Rafael Devers has paced 23.6 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 77th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cody Bellinger are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.. Cody Bellinger will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Because of Ryan Yarbrough's large platoon split, Carlos Narvaez will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Carlos Narvaez has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. Carlos Narvaez has notched a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions on the schedule today (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Aaron Judge will have the upper hand in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions on the schedule today (82%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Aaron Judge will have the upper hand in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.