Atlanta @ Washington props

Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Austin Riley's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.5% down to 8.6%. Austin Riley has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .283 mark is quite a bit higher than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Austin Riley has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 14th percentile with a 4.34 K/BB rate.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. James Wood has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last year to 18% this season. This season, James Wood has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.4 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark. James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 100.4-mph. Posting a .392 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, James Wood is positioned in the 93rd percentile.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Nick Allen has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph to 90.3-mph over the past 7 days.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Alex Verdugo has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .237 mark is deflated compared to his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 1.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Alex Verdugo has shown impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.2% to 50.8%.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. This season, Josh Bell has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.216) implies that Josh Bell has experienced some negative variance this year with his .155 actual batting average.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jose Tena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver today. Jose Tena has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Jose Tena usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jose Tena will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Drake Baldwin is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Williams in today's matchup... and moreover, Williams has a large platoon split. Drake Baldwin has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Drake Baldwin has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph figure. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 98.5-mph. In the past two weeks, Matt Olson's 26.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.3%. Matt Olson has posted a .349 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Michael Harris II has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .258 rate is a good deal lower than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. In the past week's worth of games, Alex Call's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.9-mph recently. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.2°, Alex Call has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26.3° mark in the past week. In notching a .322 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Alex Call is positioned in the 76th percentile for hitting ability. Alex Call has put up a .374 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Ozzie Albies's launch angle this season (21.2°) is a significant increase over his 18.2° figure last season. Ozzie Albies's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 20.3% on the season to 45.5% over the past 7 days. Ozzie Albies has been unlucky this year, compiling a .274 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .047 difference.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. CJ Abrams's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.6% to 20.8%. CJ Abrams's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, rising from 20.8% on the season to 25.7% in the last two weeks. Posting a .400 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, CJ Abrams grades out in the 95th percentile. By putting up a .311 batting average this year, CJ Abrams is positioned in the 94th percentile.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Marcell Ozuna has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.8% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the last two weeks. Marcell Ozuna has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 95.4-mph over the last two weeks. By putting up a .389 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Marcell Ozuna is ranked in the 98th percentile for offensive skills. Marcell Ozuna has displayed strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 96th percentile with a 1.05 K/BB rate.