Atlanta @ Washington picks
Nationals Park
ATL vs WAS Picks
MLB Picks
Total RBIs

James Wood o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. James Wood has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last year to 18% this season.. This season, James Wood has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.4 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.. James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 100.4-mph.. Posting a .392 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, James Wood is positioned in the 93rd percentile.
Total RBIs

Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. This season, Josh Bell has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.216) implies that Josh Bell has experienced some negative variance this year with his .155 actual batting average.
Total RBIs

Matt Olson o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph figure.. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 98.5-mph.. In the past two weeks, Matt Olson's 26.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.3%.. Matt Olson has posted a .349 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Nathaniel Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.2% to 50.8%.
Total RBIs

Austin Riley o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Last season, Austin Riley had an average launch angle of 13° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.4°.. Austin Riley's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (14.2° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly worse than his 17.4° seasonal mark.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (31.1) suggests that Austin Riley has experienced some negative variance this year with his 22.5 actual HR/600.. By putting up a .345 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Austin Riley finds himself in the 78th percentile for offensive skills.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

James Wood o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. James Wood has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last year to 18% this season.. This season, James Wood has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.4 mph compared to last year's 96.6 mph mark.. James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 100.4-mph.. Posting a .392 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, James Wood is positioned in the 93rd percentile.
Total Bases

Alex Verdugo o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Alex Verdugo has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .237 mark is deflated compared to his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Sporting a 1.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Alex Verdugo has shown impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Josh Bell o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. This season, Josh Bell has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.216) implies that Josh Bell has experienced some negative variance this year with his .155 actual batting average.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+110)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.2% to 50.8%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Olson o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.. Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph figure.. Matt Olson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 98.5-mph.. In the past two weeks, Matt Olson's 26.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.3%.. Matt Olson has posted a .349 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.