Atlanta @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Josh Bell has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Josh Bell's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.8% up to 31.6%.

Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Austin Riley's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.5% down to 8.6%. Austin Riley has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .283 mark is quite a bit higher than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Austin Riley has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 14th percentile with a 4.34 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in the game when estimating his BABIP ability. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and James Wood will hold that advantage in today's game. James Wood has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 94-mph mark.

Dane Dunning will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Crews in today's matchup. Dylan Crews has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Dylan Crews will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.2°, Dylan Crews has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20.6° mark over the last two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Dylan Crews has had some very poor luck this year. His .202 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Hitting from the same side that Dane Dunning throws from, Jacob Young encounters a tough challenge in today's game. Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jacob Young will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. This season, Jacob Young has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 88.3 mph compared to last year's 84.9 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Luis Garcia Jr. has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Luis Garcia Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Luis Garcia Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph recently. Luis Garcia Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, going from 45% on the season to 51.5% over the last two weeks.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Nick Allen has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph to 90.3-mph over the past 7 days.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.5% rate last year to 15.5% this season. Ronald Acuna Jr. has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 96-mph.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Alex Verdugo has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .237 mark is deflated compared to his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 1.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Alex Verdugo has shown impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 75th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Nathaniel Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.2% to 50.8%.

Brady House's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Dane Dunning will have the handedness advantage over Brady House in today's game. Brady House has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Brady House will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Brady House has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV.

Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums. The switch-hitting Vidal Brujan will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Jake Irvin. This season, Vidal Brujan has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89.4 mph compared to last year's 85.3 mph mark. Vidal Brujan's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 11.6% to 18.6%.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs.

Ha-seong Kim pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ha-seong Kim has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile with a 1.5 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jose Tena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against AJ Smith-Shawver today. Jose Tena has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Jose Tena usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jose Tena will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Matt Olson will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin in today's matchup. Matt Olson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Matt Olson has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Daylen Lile is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums. Daylen Lile will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the last week, Daylen Lile's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 11.1%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Jurickson Profar pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar's launch angle of late (29.5° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 19.2° seasonal angle. Placing in the 83rd percentile, Jurickson Profar has put up a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Ozzie Albies is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Ozzie Albies has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 4.7% seasonal rate to 10.5% over the past two weeks. Ozzie Albies has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 87.7-mph mark. Over the last 14 days, Ozzie Albies's 28.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Michael Harris II will have an edge in today's game. Michael Harris II has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the past two weeks, Michael Harris II's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.3-mph recently. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has had bad variance on his side given the .046 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

Nationals Park has the 9th-least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. In the past week's worth of games, Alex Call's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.9-mph recently. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.2°, Alex Call has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26.3° mark in the past week. In notching a .322 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Alex Call is positioned in the 76th percentile for hitting ability. Alex Call has put up a .374 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Marcell Ozuna's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, rising from 19.3% on the season to 42.9% in the past 7 days. In terms of plate discipline, Marcell Ozuna's skill is quite impressive, posting a 1.46 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 91st percentile.

Jorge Alfaro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Dane Dunning will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jorge Alfaro in today's matchup. Jorge Alfaro has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jorge Alfaro will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jorge Alfaro has displayed impressive power, recording a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power).

Hitting from the same side that Dane Dunning throws from, Paul DeJong faces a tough challenge today. Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage today. Compared to last year, Paul DeJong has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.3% to 19.5% this season. This year, Paul DeJong's 11.7% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Drake Baldwin is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Drake Baldwin will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Irvin in today's matchup. Drake Baldwin has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Posting a .281 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Drake Baldwin finds himself in the 88th percentile.

Andres Chaparro is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Nationals Park has the 10th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the same side that Dane Dunning throws from, Andres Chaparro meets a tough challenge today. Andres Chaparro will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Batting from the same side that Dane Dunning throws from, Riley Adams will have a disadvantage today. Riley Adams has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Riley Adams will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Riley Adams has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 97-mph over the last two weeks. In the past week, Riley Adams's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.9%.

Luis Garcia has not yet played a game this season.