San Diego @ Toronto Picks & Props

Rogers Centre projects as the #26 ballpark in baseball for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jackson Merrill in today's game. Jackson Merrill has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 19.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Over the past week, Jackson Merrill's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 21.3%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jackson Merrill's true offensive ability to be a .345, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .069 gap between that figure and his actual .414 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge today. Jake Cronenworth's launch angle in recent games (19.5° over the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 12.4° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Xander Bogaerts has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 106.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 91.4-mph.

Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Martin Maldonado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 93.5-mph figure. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 17.9° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in MLB.

Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past two weeks. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 46.8% to 52.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 4th-worst park in baseball for right-handed BABIP. Kevin Gausman will have the handedness advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 15.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 10% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s launch angle this year (6.4°) is significantly lower than his 9.7° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, George Springer ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. George Springer will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 4th-worst park in baseball for right-handed BABIP. Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Bo Bichette faces a tough challenge today. The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the 5th-best among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nathan Lukes's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Nathan Lukes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in today's game. Batters such as Nathan Lukes with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Randy Vasquez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Rogers Centre projects as the #26 ballpark in baseball for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph dropping to 79.6-mph over the last two weeks. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph figure last year has dropped to 84.6-mph. Luis Arraez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 17.9% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Alejandro Kirk will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Ernie Clement's launch angle from last season's 16.2° to 21° this season.

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage today.

Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Jason Heyward will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. Despite posting a .227 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jason Heyward has suffered from bad luck given the .068 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage against Randy Vasquez in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's game. Addison Barger has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph figure.

Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. The Rogers Centre roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Anthony Santander has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 67.5° angle in the past week. Anthony Santander has been unlucky this year, notching a .261 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .065 gap.

Jonatan Clase has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.