Detroit @ Toronto picks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ended an 11-game homerless drought on Thursday with a long ball against the Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto begins a weekend series with the Detroit Tigers tonight, and they hand Jack Flaherty the baseball. Flaherty is prone to the long ball, already surrendering nine this season.

This is a bit of an outlier price but the widely available +110 is still good here with THE BAT projecting 4.8 Ks for Bowden Francis. This price might be factoring in a small-sample rough patch the right-hander just snapped out of, where he allowed 14 runs over a three-game stretch (12 innings) and struck out just five batters. Looking at his other five starts, he has 25 punchouts across 29 innings and hit this Over four times. His career numbers show a pitcher that can get deep and average nearly a K/inning. He has shown a lot of efficiency in the past, and 18 outs and five strikeouts is a safe projection vs. the Tigers, who still strikeout at an above-average rate. I think Francis is past some small-sample struggles.

Francis has given up six or more hits in four straight games, where he’s 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and seven long balls served up in that stretch. It’s been a tough year overall for the 29-year-old, as he ranks in the 5th percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average. All of this spells trouble against a well-balanced Tigers offense that boasts a 116 wRC+, ranking third in the MLB with the fourth-most hits and seventh-most home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.. Anthony Santander has been unlucky this year, posting a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .067 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Colt Keith is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Colt Keith will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. George Springer is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and George Springer will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Spencer Torkelson has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last season to 14.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. The weather report expects the 4th-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Riley Greene will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bowden Francis in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average skill.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.