Aaron Judge historically rakes in the Subway Series against the New York Mets, and my MLB player props analysis will explain why he could smack a bomb tonight in the series opener.
Jose Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will also be included in my picks for Friday, May 16.
Best MLB home run props today
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Aaron Judge 1+ HR (+175) -
Jose Ramirez 1+ HR (+280) -
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR (+400)
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HR picks for May 16
Aaron Judge 1+ home run (+175 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge is already running away with the AL MVP award, and we haven’t even hit June. The Yankees slugger leads the big leagues in average (.412), hits (68), and RBIs (41). He’s also tied for the MLB lead in homers with 15.
The reigning MVP winner just went deep in his last game against the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. In fact, he has three home runs in his last five appearances.
The Yanks start a series with the Mets tonight, which is always exciting considering they’re crosstown rivals. Judge has also dominated New York in his career.
The outfielder is batting .314 lifetime against the Mets with 12 long balls in just 25 games. Yes, that’s nearly a home run every second meeting, which is absolutely insane.
Judge also left the yard twice versus the Amazins last season. Despite his lack of success against Tylor Megill in limited at-bats, this bet is worth a look.
Jose Ramirez 1+ home run (+280 at DraftKings)
Jose Ramirez is swinging it well in 2025 for the Cleveland Guardians.
He’s batting .295 with eight home runs and 22 RBI. The third baseman has always been a power threat, and he went deep 39 times last season.
Ramirez is hot right now, smacking homers in back-to-back games against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cleveland begins a series with the Cincinnati Reds today, and they will send Brady Singer to the mound. Ramirez has a ton of experience against him due to his tenure with the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central.
Ramirez is 12-for-27 lifetime (.444) versus Singer with three homers. Between his hot streak and his success with the righty on the bump, my MLB picks can see Ramirez hitting dinger No. 9 today.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ home run (+400 at DraftKings)
Despite his brand-new contract, it’s been a slow start for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
While he’s hitting .294, which is very respectable, the slugger has just five home runs. That’s far below the production the Blue Jays expect to see from Guerrero.
However, he ended an 11-game homerless drought on Thursday with a long ball against the Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto begins a weekend series with the Detroit Tigers tonight, and they hand Jack Flaherty the baseball.
Flaherty is prone to the long ball, already surrendering nine this season.
Guerrero Jr is also 2-for-10 against him with a bomb. The Blue Jays star has a realistic chance of leaving the ballpark again here.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (+175)
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+250)
- Juan Soto, Mets (+390)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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