New York @ Arizona picks

Merrill Kelly has dealt with leg cramps in two of his last three starts, which have taken him out early. He has been pitching great despite the early hooks, and I’m betting against it today and getting his Over 15.5 outs at plus money. THE BAT projects 16 outs from the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher who has topped this number in four of his last five starts despite hitting 90+ pitches just once over that stretch. His one nine-run outing has ballooned his ERA but he has been clean across his other five starts where he has allowed two or fewer runs. It’s a home start, which is always better than on the road.

The Mets have the best team ERA in the big leagues at 2.94, and Kodai Senga is a big reason for it. The right-hander is 3-2 in six starts with a stellar 1.38 ERA. He’s only allowed five earned runs this season while striking out 31 in 32 2/3 innings of work. Senga has cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in every appearance in 2025. He also faced the Arizona Diamondbacks last week, giving up one earned run across 4 1/3 innings. In fact, he's carved up Arizona in his short MLB career, posting a 1.00 ERA across three outings. 

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 15th-best batter in the league.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Pete Alonso has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last season to 20.2% this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the majors.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Pete Alonso has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last season to 20.2% this year.

The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Extreme flyball bats like Jose Herrera generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kodai Senga.. Jose Herrera will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jose Herrera has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 76.3-mph to 78.3-mph over the last week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Pete Alonso has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last season to 20.2% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Chase Field projects as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for offense.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.. Compared to last season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.1% to 24.1% this season.