Los Angeles @ Atlanta picks

Through his first few starts of the season, Spencer Schwellenbach was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He allowed four hits in his first two starts, issuing just one walk and fanning 14 hitters in 14 innings against the Padres and Marlins. He’s regressed towards the mean. Each of his last four starts has seen him surrender 6+ hits, and over 23 2/3 IP, he’s allowed 28 hits while notching just 19 strikeouts. And the advanced metrics show there's likely more regression to come. Schwellenbach has posted a 2.87 ERA, but has an xERA of 3.68 on the season. His hard-hit rate is up from 2024, while his barrel rate is also up by 1.5% compared to last season. Schwellenbach has outperformed his xBAA on five of his six pitches, none more than his fastball — where hitters are hitting just .270 when putting into play compared to a .360 xBA. 

Spencer Schwellenbach has a 2.87 ERA but his xERA is at 3.70 and his xBA (.274) is in the bottom 25th percentile. Regardless of how well he's pitched, both of these lineups are so stacked at the top that it's hard to turn down the YRFI prop at close to even money. The Dodgers are third in the majors in OPS (.791) and score a run in the first inning at the fifth-highest rate (37.5%). The Braves began the season ice-cold at the dish but turned things around in the middle of April. They are batting .279 with an OPS of .776 over the last two weeks. They face Dodgers rookie Roki Sasaki who has an xERA of 5.51 through six starts while pitching to a 6.00 ERA in the first inning. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Sean Murphy is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 82%.