St. Louis @ Cincinnati props

Over the past week, Elly De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.1% down to 0%. Elly De La Cruz's launch angle of late (3.6° in the last two weeks) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.5° seasonal figure. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Elly De La Cruz has had positive variance on his side this year. His .330 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .285.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Nolan Gorman's 16.6% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) ranks in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.8°, Victor Scott II has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.8° mark in the last week.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Masyn Winn has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, going from 50% on the season to 72.7% in the past week's worth of games. As it relates to his batting average, Masyn Winn has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .265 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .275. Masyn Winn has compiled a .264 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. In the past week's worth of games, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 94.4-mph recently. Nolan Arenado's launch angle lately (23° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 17.3° seasonal mark. Posting a 1.75 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Nolan Arenado has shown impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 86th percentile. Grading out in the 83rd percentile, Nolan Arenado has posted a .270 batting average since the start of last season.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Lars Nootbaar has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past week. Lars Nootbaar has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 95-mph in the past 7 days. Over the last week, Lars Nootbaar's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.3%. Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .251 BA is deflated compared to his .267 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #9 park in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humidity of all games on the slate today at 88%. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Utilizing Statcast data, Alec Burleson is in the 83rd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .271. Alec Burleson has put up a .273 batting average since the start of last season, ranking in the 84th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. In the last 7 days, Matt McLain's 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%. Over the last week, Matt McLain has displayed impressive power, recording a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power). The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive talent to be a .335, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .054 disparity between that mark and his actual .281 wOBA.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 62.1%. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 62.1% on the season to 69.4% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Utilizing Statcast data, Brendan Donovan is in the 97th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .299. By putting up a .346 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Brendan Donovan grades out in the 85th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. TJ Friedl has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.1-mph average to last year's 85.9-mph EV. TJ Friedl has displayed impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile with a 1.99 K/BB rate.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Jordan Walker has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 11.5% on the season to 25% in the last week. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has had some very poor luck given the .062 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Dunn in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #9 park in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humidity of all games on the slate today at 88%. Blake Dunn has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Blake Dunn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Jake Fraley has recorded a .313 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Willson Contreras has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 108.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 96.8-mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Willson Contreras's true offensive skill to be a .338, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .069 disparity between that mark and his actual .269 wOBA. Placing in the 87th percentile, Willson Contreras has posted a .348 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season. Sporting a .322 BABIP since the start of last season, Willson Contreras grades out in the 86th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Austin Hays has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last season to 24.2% this year. Austin Hays has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph average. Austin Hays's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 11.8% to 21.2%. Austin Hays has posted a .276 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 87th percentile.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Pedro Pages's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (21.5° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 13.1° seasonal angle.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Spencer Steer has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 92.9-mph. Spencer Steer's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (15.9°) is significantly better than his 11.5° angle last season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Steer's true offensive ability to be a .318, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .061 deviation between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA. Spencer Steer has exhibited strong plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 78th percentile with a 1.97 K/BB rate.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. In the past week's worth of games, Gavin Lux's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.4-mph over the course of the season to 102.2-mph recently. Gavin Lux's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 49.5% to 55.4%. In the last week's worth of games, Gavin Lux's 75% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 55.4%. Gavin Lux has put up a .265 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Noelvi Marte has hit one of the hardest balls in the game in the past week — 116.7-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power. Grading out in the 98th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.7 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league.

The #9 park in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humidity of all games on the slate today at 88%. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Austin Wynns will hold that advantage today.