St. Louis @ Cincinnati props

Over the last 7 days, Elly De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.1% down to 0%. Elly De La Cruz's launch angle this year (4.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.7° figure last season. Elly De La Cruz has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .330 rate is a fair amount higher than his .285 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. Masyn Winn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 96.4-mph in the last week's worth of games. In the past week, Masyn Winn's 72.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50%.

Austin Hays has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .278 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .238 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. As it relates to plate discipline, Austin Hays's talent is quite bad, sporting a 5.49 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 4th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Victor Scott II will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Victor Scott II has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Victor Scott II has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.8°, Victor Scott II has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.8° mark over the past 7 days.

Miles Mikolas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt McLain in today's game. Matt McLain's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 98.5-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 96.4-mph over the past week.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Brady Singer in today's matchup... and moreover, Singer has a large platoon split.

The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the last 7 days, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 94.4-mph recently. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.3°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23° figure in the past 14 days.

Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Because of Brady Singer's large platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Nolan Gorman has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds has just 1 same-handed RP. Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Jordan Walker has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 11.5% on the season to 25% in the last week. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has had some very poor luck given the .062 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Dunn in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #9 park in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the most humidity of all games on the slate today at 88%. Blake Dunn has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Blake Dunn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, TJ Friedl will have an edge in today's matchup. TJ Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. TJ Friedl will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jose Trevino will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Trevino has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph to 90-mph in the last 14 days. In the past week, Jose Trevino's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Miles Mikolas in today's game. Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jake Fraley will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Checking in at the 77th percentile, Jake Fraley has notched a .313 BABIP since the start of last season.

Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest in the league. Pedro Pages's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (21.5° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 13.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Alec Burleson will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Alec Burleson has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds only has 1 same-handed RP. Alec Burleson has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Gavin Lux is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 10th-best field in baseball for left-handed batting average. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Gavin Lux will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. Noelvi Marte will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Santiago Espinal has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Santiago Espinal will hold that advantage in today's game.

The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Spencer Steer will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.8-mph in recent games. Last year, Spencer Steer had an average launch angle of 11.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.5°.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. Willson Contreras has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 108.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 96.8-mph.

The #10 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. In MLB, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Austin Wynns will hold that advantage in today's game.