MLB Picks

There's so many reasons, I don’t even know where to begin with why I like this prop and price so much for Elly De La Cruz. For starters, De La Cruz is swinging a hot bat right now, with seven hits over his last three games, so you’re not buying into a slump or trying to catch a struggling hitter at the right time. He’s also facing Miles Mikolas in Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Mikolas has already allowed nine home runs this season in just 134 at-bats. Another thing I love about this spot is that Mikolas rarely pitches deep into games, meaning De La Cruz should also get multiple at-bats against the bullpen. Because he’s a switch hitter, you also don’t have to worry much about losing a platoon advantage once the relievers come in. Whether it’s against lefties or righties, De La Cruz has shown he can take anyone deep this season. I think this prop should be trading much closer to +210.

With the Phillies heating up at the plate, I’m taking the Over tonight. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings, and they scored 22 runs in the weekend series against the Colorado Rockies. That included four homers from Kyle Schwarber, with Alec Bohm and Harper also joining the party.

Philadelphia has also finished with 9+ hits in five of its last six games, so watch for solid production here, with Boston expected to use an opener before turning things over to Brayan Bello. The Red Sox offense is the biggest cause for pause here, but the possible return of Willson Contreras here would give the lineup a boost.

Bobby Witt Jr. at +400 to hit a home run with the wind blowing out to his pull side at Rate Field at 18 mph? Yeah, I’ll gladly hit the button on that number. Erick Fedde has allowed five home runs over his last two starts, and seven of the eight home runs he’s given up this season have come against right-handed hitters. Witt also has notable reverse splits when it comes to power. Twenty-two of the 23 home runs he hit last season came against right-handed pitching. On top of that, Witt has been swinging a hot bat lately, and at +400, this is simply too good of a price to pass up.

Eury Pérez, when right, has elite stuff and flashes true ace potential. The issue right now is that he doesn’t look fully locked in, and when he struggles, things can unravel quickly. In his last start against the Baltimore Orioles, Pérez walked five batters, which is a strong indication that he’s fighting his command at the moment. That’s something the Minnesota Twins are well-positioned to exploit. Minnesota’s lineup is anchored by experienced hitters like Josh Bell and Byron Buxton, who should have the discipline to stay patient against Pérez, work counts, and wait for pitches they can drive—or simply take their walks. The Twins are trading around -107 on the moneyline, but I make them closer to -135 favorites in this matchup.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.