Chicago @ Colorado Picks & Props

This year, Jake Cave has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 14% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter. Jake Cave's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.3-mph figure last year has fallen off to 87-mph. Jake Cave's launch angle this season (6.2°) is significantly worse than his 15.1° mark last season. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.265) may lead us to conclude that Jake Cave has been lucky this year with his .297 actual wOBA. Grading out in the 11th percentile, Jake Cave has posted a .275 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Cody Bellinger will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Cody Bellinger has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .271 rate is quite a bit higher than his .239 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Cody Bellinger ranks in the 11th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.6% rate this year).

Michael Busch is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game. This year, Michael Busch has been pulled from the game early in 15% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Michael Busch will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Michael Busch has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 11% seasonal rate has dropped to 3.4% in the last 14 days.

Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ian Happ today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.1% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.3°, Ian Happ's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (5.5° in the past 14 days).

Hitting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Seiya Suzuki faces a tough challenge today. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today's matchup. In the last week, Seiya Suzuki's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 92.5 mph to 84.6 mph. Seiya Suzuki has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .274 rate is inflated compared to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game. 10% of the time that Pete Crow-Armstrong has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Sporting a .286 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Pete Crow-Armstrong is ranked in the 18th percentile.

Antonio Senzatela will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today's game. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dansby Swanson in today's game. Dansby Swanson's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 80.6-mph over the last week. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.9°, Dansby Swanson has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 17° figure over the past week.

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Nico Hoerner faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nico Hoerner in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 86.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Antonio Senzatela will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Isaac Paredes today. Out of every team today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Isaac Paredes today. From last season to this one, Isaac Paredes's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 91.5 mph to 89.2 mph.

Despite posting a .323 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan McMahon has had some very good luck given the .012 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311. Ryan McMahon has put up a .231 batting average this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

Justin Steele will hold the platoon advantage over Brendan Rodgers in today's game. Brendan Rodgers has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last week. Compared to his seasonal mark of 5.9°, Brendan Rodgers's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (0.9° in the past 14 days). Brendan Rodgers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 19.7% to 11.6%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brendan Rodgers has had positive variance on his side this year. His .314 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Justin Steele will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar in today's matchup. Ezequiel Tovar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 43.8% on the season to 16.7% over the last 7 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) implies that Ezequiel Tovar has been lucky this year with his .320 actual wOBA. In terms of plate discipline, Ezequiel Tovar's talent is quite poor, putting up a 9.36 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 1st percentile.

Justin Steele will have the handedness advantage over Brenton Doyle in today's matchup. In the last week, Brenton Doyle's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%. Brenton Doyle has been lucky this year, compiling a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .034 disparity. Brenton Doyle has shown weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 24th percentile with a 3.66 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Charlie Blackmon in the 20th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Charlie Blackmon's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86.4-mph mark last year has dropped to 84.4-mph. As it relates to his batting average, Charlie Blackmon has had some very good luck this year. His .247 BA has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .215. Charlie Blackmon has posted a .274 BABIP this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°. Sam Hilliard will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Steele in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Sam Hilliard can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°. Jacob Stallings will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Last season, Jacob Stallings had an average launch angle of 11.1° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.4°.

Michael Toglia is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Coors Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°. Michael Toglia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Coors Field grades out as the #1 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Justin Steele throws from, Nolan Jones will have an edge in today's game.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°. Aaron Schunk will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 85°.