World Series Odds: A Dodgers Three-Peat is Already at +220, But It's Far From a Sure Thing
Total PicksCLE 214, LAD 425
Total PicksCLE 228, LAD 143
Among all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Steven Kwan will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, falling from 44.4% on the season to 31.6% over the past two weeks. Despite posting a .341 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Steven Kwan has been very fortunate given the .033 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Tyler Freeman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Tyler Freeman has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.8-mph average to last season's 85.8-mph average. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Freeman's true offensive talent to be a .320, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .037 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .283 wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Jose Ramirez has displayed good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile with a 1.51 K/BB rate.
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Bo Naylor will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup. Bo Naylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences today. Over the last two weeks, Bo Naylor has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 33° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.4°.
Mookie Betts projects as the 14th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Mookie Betts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have the upper hand in today's game. Kyle Manzardo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today. In the past week, Kyle Manzardo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.3% up to 27.3%. Kyle Manzardo has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.1-mph mark.
Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. In the past week, Brayan Rocchio's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.7% up to 18.2%. In the past week's worth of games, Brayan Rocchio's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.5-mph over the course of the season to 97.5-mph in recent games. Brayan Rocchio's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 39.1% on the season to 63.6% over the past week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 6th-best batter in the league when it comes to his batting average ability. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Freddie Freeman will have an edge today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Lane Thomas is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Lane Thomas has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 6.6% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 7 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Andres Gimenez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Andres Gimenez will have an edge in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Tommy Edman will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Brennan in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Will Brennan is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Will Brennan will have the handedness advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's game. Will Brennan hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Andy Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.338) implies that Andy Pages has suffered from bad luck this year with his .303 actual wOBA.
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Daniel Schneemann will have the handedness advantage against Jack Flaherty today. Daniel Schneemann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Daniel Schneemann ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.6% rate this year). Daniel Schneemann is remarkably athletic, ranking in the 76th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.28 ft/sec this year.
Dodger Stadium has the 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Kevin Kiermaier will have an edge today. Kevin Kiermaier will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Kevin Kiermaier has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last year's 87.4-mph EV.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Lux hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Gavin Lux will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
Max Muncy is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 100°. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Max Muncy will have the upper hand in today's game. Max Muncy will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Max Muncy's launch angle from last year's 21.8° to 26.6° this season.
Shohei Ohtani has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | dude18555 | 5-5-0 | +18995 |
| 2 | HJLOPEZ | 8-2-0 | +16210 |
| 3 | mindsusan12 | 6-2-2 | +14485 |
| 4 | lusvegasluva | 4-5-1 | +14215 |
| 5 | OMREBEL02 | 2-8-0 | +13685 |
| 6 | RebelTell2 | 7-3-0 | +13150 |
| 7 | allan6 | 7-2-1 | +12945 |
| 8 | peacy454 | 4-6-0 | +12845 |
| 9 | midway1942 | 6-3-1 | +12570 |
| 10 | BRUNOD | 8-2-0 | +12486 |
| All Guardians Money Leaders | |||
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | boedad | 5-4-1 | +17865 |
| 2 | mikers | 6-4-0 | +17205 |
| 3 | OMREBEL02 | 4-5-1 | +16165 |
| 4 | BeeRAD | 7-2-1 | +15700 |
| 5 | glen2003 | 5-4-1 | +15625 |
| 6 | katscore | 8-2-0 | +14665 |
| 7 | Alexandr1966 | 4-5-1 | +14540 |
| 8 | cjrissgoodin | 7-3-0 | +14010 |
| 9 | lusvegasluva | 2-8-0 | +13260 |
| 10 | vitom | 6-4-0 | +12480 |
| All Dodgers Money Leaders | |||