San Diego @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 15.9% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Jose Siri has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94-mph figure.

Junior Caminero's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The 5th-shallowest LF dimensions in the league are found in Tropicana Field. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game. Junior Caminero has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball in the past week — 113.9-mph — which is a good indicator of recent form and raw power.

The #5 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. From last season to this one, Luis Arraez's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.6 mph.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Among all parks, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's game. Dylan Carlson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph to 92.3-mph in the past 14 days. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (21.6°) is a significant increase over his 15° angle last season.

Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an edge in today's game. Ben Rortvedt has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Ben Rortvedt will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Ben Rortvedt has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week. Ben Rortvedt has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 86.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.8°, Christopher Morel has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 29.9° figure over the last 14 days. Christopher Morel has been unlucky this year, notching a .289 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .032 difference.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 13th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Yandy Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Yandy Diaz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 94.6-mph over the past week.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Xander Bogaerts's launch angle from last season's 7.9° to 11.1° this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive talent to be a .329, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .034 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .295 wOBA.

Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last season's 87.7-mph average.

Luis Campusano pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's game. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Sporting a .355 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Brandon Lowe has performed in the 91st percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jurickson Profar has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91-mph EV. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 42% to 47%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, David Peralta will have an edge in today's matchup. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 46.8% to 52.6%. David Peralta has notched a .327 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 77th percentile. Posting a .269 batting average this year, David Peralta is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

Jackson Merrill's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.2% seasonal rate to 19.5% over the past two weeks. Jackson Merrill has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 92.8-mph in the last two weeks. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 20.4% on the season to 31.7% over the past 14 days.

Mason McCoy has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 58.8% of the time in the past two weeks' worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Compared to last year, Jake Cronenworth has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 47.9% this season.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Manny Machado has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.4-mph figure. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 38.6% to 47%. With a .338 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Manny Machado finds himself in the 78th percentile for hitting ability.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Taylor Walls has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.