Chicago @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Homers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in MLB. Bryan Reynolds's 9.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the league: 19th percentile.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Hendricks throws from, Billy McKinney will have an advantage in today's game. The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Billy McKinney is assured to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Billy McKinney will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Michael A. Taylor will hold that advantage in today's game. Michael A. Taylor has been unlucky this year, compiling a .241 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .285 — a .044 difference.

Michael Busch is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Michael Busch will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Homers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in MLB. Batting from the same side that Kyle Hendricks throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. There has been a decrease in Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity this year, from 88.8 mph last year to 85.7 mph now As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has had some very good luck this year. His .316 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .284. Sporting a 3.9 K/BB rate this year, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has demonstrated weak plate discipline, ranking in the 19th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Paul Skenes in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryan De La Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Bryan De La Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 92.5-mph in the past 7 days.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pete Crow-Armstrong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Christian Bethancourt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 15.2% to 21.9%.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball bats like Isaac Paredes are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Paul Skenes. Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Hendricks today.

Nico Hoerner's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.278) provides evidence that Nico Hoerner has experienced some negative variance this year with his .255 actual batting average.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year. His .289 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .309.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Connor Joe is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Connor Joe will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Connor Joe has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 4.8% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week's worth of games.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alika Williams will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.280) may lead us to conclude that Alika Williams has had bad variance on his side this year with his .236 actual wOBA. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Alika Williams and his 50% since the start of last season rank in the 94th percentile by this measure.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Rowdy Tellez will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Hendricks in today's matchup. Rowdy Tellez is assured to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game since none of the available options for the Chicago Cubs share his handedness.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jared Triolo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jared Triolo has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph figure.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Yasmani Grandal will hold that advantage today. Over the past week, Yasmani Grandal's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.9% up to 18.2%. Yasmani Grandal has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.2-mph average to last season's 87.9-mph mark.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Miguel Amaya has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.9% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past 14 days. Miguel Amaya has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.1-mph EV. Over the last 14 days, Miguel Amaya's 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.1%.