San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jackson Merrill today. Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Merrill has experienced some positive variance given the .015 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327. Sporting a 3.92 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Merrill has displayed poor plate discipline, grading out in the 19th percentile.

The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Miles Mikolas Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has experienced some positive variance given the .052 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Victor Scott will hold the platoon advantage over Dylan Cease today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Victor Scott will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Victor Scott has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 5.1% to 13.6%. Over the past week, Victor Scott's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 90.2 mph to 86.2 mph.

Jake Cronenworth has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Cronenworth in today's game.

Batting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Manny Machado will be in a tough position in today's game. Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 17.7% to 11.7%. In the last 14 days, Manny Machado's 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Xander Bogaerts has put up a .271 batting average this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.

Pedro Pages is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Pedro Pages will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Checking in at the 81st percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Pedro Pages demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - an important ability for achieving a high batting average.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°.

Ivan Herrera's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game. Ivan Herrera's footspeed has improved this season. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.37 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Paul Goldschmidt's true offensive ability to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .041 deviation between that figure and his actual .291 wOBA.

Today, Luis Arraez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.7% rate (93rd percentile). Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Luis Arraez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 82.8-mph over the past 7 days. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.6-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.6-mph.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Jose Fermin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jose Fermin's footspeed has improved this season. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.79 ft/sec now. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Fermin has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .255 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal angle of 17.2°, Nolan Arenado has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.8°) over the last 14 days. Placing in the 77th percentile, Nolan Arenado sits with a .267 batting average this year.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Matt Carpenter will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Matt Carpenter's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 28.6%. By putting up a 1.99 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Matt Carpenter has shown good plate discipline, checking in at the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Masyn Winn will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Posting a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Masyn Winn has performed in the 84th percentile. By putting up a .279 batting average this year, Masyn Winn grades out in the 85th percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Over the past 7 days, Mason McCoy's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 62.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Luken Baker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. Luken Baker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 95°. David Peralta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's game. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 46.8% to 55%.