San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams today. Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, notching a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .014 gap. In terms of plate discipline, Jackson Merrill's skill is quite poor, sporting a 3.84 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 19th percentile.

Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Alec Burleson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, going from 14% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Jake Cronenworth has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake Cronenworth today. Jake Cronenworth has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 86.9-mph over the last 14 days.

Batting from the same side that Kyle Gibson throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams today. Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. From last year to this one, Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.7% to 11.8%. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Manny Machado's 6.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.8%.

Randy Vasquez will have the handedness advantage against Masyn Winn in today's game. In today's game, Masyn Winn is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (79th percentile). From last season to this one, Masyn Winn's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.7 mph to 87.4 mph. Over the past 7 days, Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 87.4 mph to 83.5 mph. Masyn Winn's launch angle in recent games (5.7° in the past 7 days) is considerably worse than his 13.2° seasonal figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky this year, compiling a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .041 difference.

Luis Arraez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams today. Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the last 7 days. From last season to this one, Luis Arraez's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.5 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Checking in at the 80th percentile, Xander Bogaerts has posted a .270 batting average this year.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game. Pedro Pages has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a core ability for batting average), grading out in the 81st percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Tommy Pham is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Tommy Pham will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Victor Scott will have the upper hand in today's game. Victor Scott hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Scott has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 3.9% seasonal rate to 10% over the past 14 days.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado's launch angle recently (6.8° over the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 17.2° seasonal mark. Ranking in the 80th percentile, Nolan Arenado sits with a .270 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.2% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the last week.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 47.1%. Over the last week, Jurickson Profar's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.1%.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Higashioka has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 93.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 17.5% to 25.6%. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 45% on the season to 72.7% in the past week. Kyle Higashioka has recorded a .327 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

David Peralta's batting average talent is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, David Peralta will have the upper hand in today's game. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 46.8% to 55.4%.

The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Matt Carpenter will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Matt Carpenter's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 40%. Matt Carpenter's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 15.6% on the season to 40% over the past 7 days.

Tyler Wade has gone over 0.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.