Kansas City @ Minnesota Picks & Props

Batting from the same side that Seth Lugo throws from, Jose Miranda will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jose Miranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences today. Among every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. In the last week, Jose Miranda's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%. In the past two weeks, Jose Miranda's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 91.2 mph to 83.4 mph.

Michael Massey's BABIP skill is projected in the 18th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 10th-deepest CF fences in the majors are found in Target Field. Michael Massey will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Michael Massey has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .322 figure is quite a bit higher than his .293 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Michael Massey has displayed poor plate discipline this year, ranking in the 10th percentile with a 4.7 K/BB rate.

The 10th-deepest CF fences in the majors are found in Target Field. Joe Ryan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Ryan's large platoon split. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game. In the last week, Bobby Witt Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 94 mph to 88.5 mph. Despite posting a .416 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had some very good luck given the .042 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .374.

Seth Lugo will hold the platoon advantage over Royce Lewis in today's game. Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Among every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals. Over the last 7 days, Royce Lewis's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.9% down to 0%. Despite posting a .402 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side given the .064 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today. Freddy Fermin's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (37.3° over the past 7 days) is significantly better than his 7.6° seasonal figure. Sporting a .287 batting average this year, Freddy Fermin is positioned in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Willi Castro will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 41.9% to 49.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Matt Wallner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Matt Wallner will have the upper hand today. Matt Wallner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's game.

Maikel Garcia's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today. Maikel Garcia has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 90-mph. In the last two weeks, Maikel Garcia's 22% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Vinnie Pasquantino ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Given Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Vinnie Pasquantino will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Austin Martin will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.274) provides evidence that Austin Martin has had bad variance on his side this year with his .234 actual batting average. In terms of plate discipline, Austin Martin's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.81 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 87th percentile.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Kyle Isbel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today's game... and moreover, Ryan has a large platoon split. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Out of all the teams today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Hunter Renfroe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (2.8° in the past 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 11.1° seasonal mark. Hunter Renfroe has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 76th percentile with a 2.06 K/BB rate.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Considering Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Adam Frazier will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today. In terms of his batting average, Adam Frazier has experienced some negative variance this year. His .195 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .246. Adam Frazier is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (20.4% rate this year).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Salvador Perez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today. There has been a significant improvement in Salvador Perez's launch angle from last year's 15.3° to 19° this season.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Farmer will hold that advantage in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Kyle Farmer's launch angle from last season's 13° to 16° this season. As it relates to his batting average, Kyle Farmer has experienced some negative variance this year. His .184 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230. Posting a 2.21 K/BB rate this year, Kyle Farmer has displayed favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage in today's game. Last season, Carlos Santana had an average launch angle of 7.9° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.1°. In the last 7 days, Carlos Santana's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manuel Margot in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Manuel Margot will hold that advantage in today's game. Manuel Margot's launch angle of late (25.8° in the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 13.9° seasonal mark. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Manuel Margot has had some very poor luck this year. His .282 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today's game. Max Kepler will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 43.7% on the season to 64% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects MJ Melendez in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. MJ Melendez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage over Joe Ryan in today's matchup... and moreover, Ryan has a large platoon split. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense. Christian Vazquez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Christian Vazquez's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 88.7-mph now compared to just 86.4-mph then. Christian Vazquez's launch angle this season (17.4°) is a considerable increase over his 9.6° figure last year.