MLB Picks

Conditions are ideal for power, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures around 80 degrees — a strong setup for home runs. Jake Burger gets a premium matchup against Zach Eflin, who is coming off back surgery and posted the second-worst HR/9 among starters with 60+ innings last season. Burger, hitting out of the cleanup spot, is 3-for-7 with a home run against Eflin in his career. THE BAT projects a fair price around +375, making current numbers appealing. There are multiple ways to attack this game, especially with Texas yet to name a starter. Samuel Basallo at +550 or better also projects as +EV for the Baltimore Orioles. Betting on the earliest game of the slate is also an easy decision. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob deGrom to throw 73 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Scott Barry grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in today's game.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Jacob deGrom will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The Phillies are sending talented prospect Andrew Painter to the hill but we don't know what we'll get in his big league debut. After all, he had a 5.26 ERA in 26 minor league starts last year and the Nationals have some talented bats like James Wood and CJ Abrams at the top of their order. Meanwhile, the Nats are using relief pitcher P.J. Poulin as an opener and he had a 3.93 xERA in 24 2/3 innings last year. I don't trust him against a dangerous Phillies lineup led by Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. Especially with a stiff 13 mpg breeze blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Brady House is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in the majors — generally good for homers.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Bubba Chandler in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 91st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for righty home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Williamson throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an edge in today's game.

The Chicago White Sox are listed at +134 on the moneyline, while I have them closer to -103 favorites, so this is a number I’m willing to back. Janson Junk gets the start for Miami, and his profile sets up well for Chicago. He’s a command-based pitcher with a low strikeout rate and limited swing-and-miss, which should allow the White Sox to consistently put the ball in play and generate offense. That’s especially important for their left-handed bats—Munetaka Murakami, Andrew Benintendi, and Colson Montgomery—who all project well in this matchup. Junk also isn’t a pitcher who typically works deep into games, so there’s a clear path for Chicago to elevate his pitch count and force Miami into the bullpen early. If that happens, the advantage swings even further, as the White Sox should be able to apply sustained pressure against the Marlins’ middle relief. 

Throwing 93 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Erick Fedde places in the 85th percentile.. The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine).. Doug Eddings profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be umping today.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. This contest is predicted to have the 6th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

He may be 41 years old, but Max Scherzer looked like he was in his prime in spring training. In three starts he posted a 0.66 WHIP with as many strikeouts (nine) as hits and walks combined.

His first start sees him taking on a Rockies squad that is fanning like they’re serving a pharoah during his leisure period. They rank second in MLB with a 37.2% chase rate and third with a whiff rate of 34.9%. That’s led to them averaging more than a strikeout per inning at the plate. 

Cody Ponce’s knee injury yesterday led to five relievers pitching nearly seven innings yesterday, so Scherzer is likely going to be allowed a bit more rope today. He should get six innings against an offense posting a .215 xBA so far this season.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best field in the majors for righty home runs.. Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Rogers Centre has the 6th-shallowest in the majors.. Kazuma Okamoto will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Kazuma Okamoto has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .433.

It’s Tuesday—you have to have a home run bet in the account—and I’m hitting the button on Matt Olson. I price Olson closer to +250 to go deep in this matchup, and he has plenty of factors working in his favor. Olson is facing Aaron Civale of the Athletics, a low-velocity, sinker-heavy pitcher—and that’s a pitch Olson absolutely crushes from right-handers. Civale is also a fly-ball pitcher, which becomes a problem with the weather conditions at Truist Park on Tuesday: 83 degrees with the wind blowing out at 9 mph. Give me Olson to hit a home run. This bet checks every box—including the revenge narrative—and it’s worth noting he’s already taken Civale deep once in just three career at-bats.

I don’t usually put a lot of weight into batter vs. pitcher data given the small samples, but it’s hard to ignore that Brent Rooker has taken José Suárez deep three times in just five at-bats — especially with Rooker sitting at +475. Rooker had a strong spring and may be off to a slow start, but the power is real. He has legitimate 40-HR upside, which puts him in a rare tier of hitters. Suárez is more of a bullpen arm being stretched into a starting role due to the injury to Spencer Strider, which adds risk. The environment isn’t elite, but 80-degree weather in Atlanta with a total of 9 is still solid. Fair value on this HR prop is closer to +400, and Rooker projects similarly to names like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shea Langeliers, and Austin Riley — all of whom are priced shorter.

Richie Palacios's BABIP ability is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Richie Palacios is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 10th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average.. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 9th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Hunter Feduccia is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 10th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Hunter Feduccia in today's matchup.

Mike Trout doesn't need much of an invitation, and Taillon is practically rolling out the red carpet. 

Ten home runs and nine walks in just 13.1 spring training innings tell you that this is a pitcher who can't find the zone and is getting destroyed when he does. 

Trout has already taken Taillon deep in their career matchup. The Angeles slugger launched two bombs on Opening Day at Houston, and I’ll back him to do it again Tuesday night at Wrigley.

 

José Soriano is riding a 29.2% strikeout rate and a jaw-dropping 41.3% whiff rate through his 2026 opener. This follows a strong spring where the Los Angeles Angels righty struck out 13 across 11 ⅔ and eight per nine frames in 2025. 

Cold, heavy air at Wrigley Field plays right into Soriano's hard sinker and devastating slider combo. Back him to punch out at least five on Tuesday night.

Carson Benge has been hitting the cover off the ball since making his MLB debut this season, and with a number this high opposite a pitcher who can't miss bats, it's all about value.

The Mets make consistent contact, which will bode well against Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante, who doesn't miss bats and boasted the fourth-highest ERA in MLB among qualified starters last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for lefty home runs.. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.. Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for lefty home runs.. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.. Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Rafael Devers has a mouthwatering matchup to jumpstart his campaign against German Marquez.

The veteran pitcher struggled mightily with lefties last season, allowing a .311 average, .396 wOBA, and 1.71 homers per nine innings.

Devers is a prime candidate to take advantage. Isolating Marquez’ three most-used pitchers against left-handed bats, Devers posted a .355 OBP and 59.9% hard hit rate against righties last season. Focus on Marquez’ two go-to pitches and that hard hit rate spikes to 63.4%.

Devers should generate good contact in this matchup, and good things tend to happen when he does. 

Anytime you get an opportunity to fade German Marquez is a good time to fade German Marquez.

It’s an understatement to say the Giants have gotten off to a bad start offensively this season, with four runs through four games. Rafael Devers has been a tad unlucky to be slugging only .333 though, given his 62.5% hard hit rate and 94.1 average exit velocity.

Tuesday gives him a great opportunity to find some luck. Marquez was awful last season, and he followed that up by posting a 7.16 ERA in spring training. He allowed three HR in four starts, as opponents slugged .438 on him.

Devers posted a .256 ISO vs. RHP last season, and should get at least two appearances against Marquez. I won’t be surprised to see one of them resulting in a trot around the bases, but we’ll settle for an extra-base hit.  

 

It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Alfonso Marquez) in charge of the strike zone today.. Max Fried will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Alfonso Marquez) in charge of the strike zone today.. Max Fried will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Greene is hitting just .176 this season, but he finally found a bit of an offensive rhythm on Monday, finishing 2-for-5 with a pair of singles. Sometimes, all a hitter needs is some confidence to get them going, and Greene has homered against Pfaadt before, who gave up 26 bombs last season. Greene clubbed 36 bombs last year as well. 

Dingler is off to a red-hot start in this young 2026 campaign, batting .333 with five RBIs already. The catcher drove in a run in Monday’s loss, and he’s recorded at least one RBI in three of Detroit’s four games so far. He has an RBI against Pfaadt in two at-bats. 

Bibee’s primary flaw is the home run ball. He allowed 1.33 HR/9 a year ago despite a 10-point uptick in groundball rate.

Max Muncy posted 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitchers a season ago, tagging them for a 157 wRC+ with substantial power (.247 ISO). He hits Bibee’s three-pitch mix against lefties (primarily four-seamers and change-ups with a dash of cutters) well, with decreased whiff rates and increased effectiveness against all three offerings.

Shohei Ohtani’s arsenal of pitches is downright filthy (115 Stuff+), and he was dominant at home a season ago (.151 BAA, 1.71 ERA). 

There’s a fully stocked bullpen behind him after Sunday’s off day and yesterday’s three-pitcher outing, so they should limit a Cleveland Guardians lineup with poor numbers (.279 wOBA, 79 wRC+). 

Tanner Bibee (104 Stuff+) has been a dependable arm, recording an xERA below 3.75 in each of the last three seasons (87 starts). The weather favors these two strong starting pitchers, as there’ll be rain in Southern California.