Philadelphia @ Seattle Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. Luke Raley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Phillips in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage today. Luke Raley's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 95-mph seasonal average has lowered to 90.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Josh Rojas is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Phillips throws from, Josh Rojas will have the upper hand today. Josh Rojas will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Josh Rojas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan Woo in today's game... and the cherry on top, Woo has a huge platoon split. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today. Randy Arozarena has been unlucky this year, notching a .319 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .345 — a .026 gap.

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Johan Rojas's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 30.12 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .252 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Johan Rojas has had bad variance on his side given the .024 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .276.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Dylan Moore pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage today. Dylan Moore has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week. In the past 7 days, Dylan Moore's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 93.8-mph of late.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Justin Turner will hold that advantage today. When it comes to plate discipline, Justin Turner's skill is quite good, posting a 1.53 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 91st percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.2°, Austin Hays has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 32.2° mark in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's game... and even better, Woo has a huge platoon split. Bryson Stott has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Bryson Stott's launch angle this season (14.6°) is significantly higher than his 9.9° angle last season.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today's game. Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 89.6-mph figure. Cal Raleigh's launch angle lately (24.1° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 19.4° seasonal angle.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Trea Turner has recorded a .373 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Alec Bohm is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Alec Bohm has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph EV.

Bryce Harper projects as the 11th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and even better, Woo has a huge platoon split. Bryce Harper has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Mitch Haniger will hold that advantage in today's game. Mitch Haniger has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark. Mitch Haniger's launch angle of late (29° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably higher than his 12.9° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mitch Haniger's true offensive ability to be a .313, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .034 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .279 wOBA.

Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Victor Robles pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Victor Robles will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past 7 days, Victor Robles's 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.3%. Based on Statcast data, Victor Robles ranks in the 91st percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .347.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. J.T. Realmuto has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .306 rate is deflated compared to his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a .331 BABIP this year, J.T. Realmuto has performed in the 82nd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best batter in MLB. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's game... and moreover, Woo has a huge platoon split. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Nick Castellanos's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks. The Seattle Mariners outfield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15% to 19.1%. Over the past two weeks, Nick Castellanos's 65% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

Leonardo Rivas pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Leonardo Rivas will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.