MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds Today for July 4: Caminero Takes Paddack Deep

Our MLB home run props for the Fourth of July include Junior Caminero, Shohei Ohtani, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Jul 4, 2025 • 11:57 ET • 4 min read
Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Junior Caminero rounds the bases after a home run.

Today’s MLB player props analysis will highlight Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani.

I’m also eyeing Junior Caminero, who continues to stay hot for the Rays, with today's MLB picks

Best MLB home run props today

  • TEAM Pete Crow-Armstrong (+330)
  • TEAM Shohei Ohtani (+170)
  • TEAM Junior Caminero (+280)
  • 💲 +4311 parlay💲

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HR picks for July 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+330 at DraftKings)

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a star for the Chicago Cubs this season. He’s hitting .265 with 21 home runs and 64 RBI and has already collected four hits in three games in July. While PCA has yet to leave the yard this month, he’ll be loving today’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis sends Miles Mikolas to the mound, and he struggled immensely in June, compiling a 6.58 ERA, allowing six homers in just five starts. PCA has raked against Mikolas in his career as well, going 3-for-4 with two long balls. His eyes are going to light up with the veteran on the hill this afternoon. 

Crow-Armstrong has left the ballpark nine times at home this season, and he’s hitting .288 at Wrigley Field as well. Don’t be surprised if he smacks No. 22 on the Fourth of July.

Shohei Ohtani (+170 at DraftKings)

Shohei Ohtani is on track to win NL MVP again. By no surprise, he’s putting up ridiculous numbers once again, hitting .284 with 30 homers and 56 RBI. Ohtani has also made his return to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers

The slugger has three bombs in his last seven games, most recently going deep on Tuesday against the White Sox. Today, he’ll face Lance McCullers Jr. of the Astros, who recently returned from injury. However, the righty has struggled, allowing 12 earned runs across his last two starts, including four homers. 

While Ohtani is just 5-for-21 lifetime against McCullers with no long balls, he’s smacked 24 home runs off right-handed hurlers this year, and McCullers is leaving a lot of pitches in the strike zone lately. Ohtani could capitalize.

Junior Caminero (+280 at DraftKings)

Losing Wander Franco due to his legal troubles was brutal for the Tampa Bay Rays, but it appears they have another star in Junior Caminero. The youngster is batting .259 with 21 home runs already in what will be his first full big league season. Caminero has gone deep four times in his last 10 games alone. 

The 21-year-old will face Twins starter Chris Paddack today, who's prone to the long ball. He’s surrendered 13 of them in 17 starts this season and just allowed two in his most recent outing against the Tigers.

Caminero is 2-for-3 lifetime against Paddack, and 16 of his homers have come against right-handed pitchers. He’s already left the yard against the Twins in this season, too. Caminero may just add to Paddack’s misery in the series opener. 

Today’s HR parlay

Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run

Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run

Junior Caminero to hit a home run

  1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
  2. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
  3. James Wood, Nationals

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications. He's currently a senior editor at ClutchPoints and has published work for numerous betting websites in the past. 

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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