San Diego @ Baltimore Picks & Props

17% of the time that Ryan O'Hearn has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Over the last 7 days, Ryan O'Hearn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal average of 12°, Ryan O'Hearn has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 16.1° angle in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Gunnar Henderson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by the league's deepest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.1% down to 0%. Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 95.7-mph seasonal average has dropped to 89.8-mph over the past two weeks. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 13.4% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gunnar Henderson's true offensive talent to be a .362, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .032 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .394 wOBA.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill has displayed bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 16th percentile with a 4.19 K/BB rate.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will bat from his worse side against Randy Vasquez today. In the last week, Adley Rutschman's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 90.7 mph to 77.1 mph.

Hitting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will have a tough challenge today. Ryan Mountcastle has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 83.8-mph in the last week's worth of games. With a 3.89 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has demonstrated poor plate discipline, checking in at the 21st percentile.

Batting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Manny Machado faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado today. Manny Machado's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (5.5°) is quite a bit worse than his 8.7° figure last season. Over the past two weeks, Manny Machado has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 9.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 6.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Xander Bogaerts's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph recently.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Albert Suarez in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. As it relates to his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has been unlucky this year. His .229 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255. Ha-seong Kim has displayed strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 96th percentile with a 1.35 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an edge today. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Cedric Mullins II will hold that advantage in today's game.

Luis Arraez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and will be challenged by baseball's deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez today. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 87.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. James McCann will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, James McCann has had some very poor luck this year. His .252 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Anthony Santander will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. David Peralta will hold the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez today. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 20.3% on the season to 66.7% in the past week.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Colton Cowser is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.5% rate last year to 11.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Connor Norby will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 9th-best park in the majors for lefty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Heston Kjerstad will hold the platoon advantage over Randy Vasquez in today's game. Heston Kjerstad hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate today at 89°. Kyle Higashioka has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89-mph figure. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 17.5% to 25.8%. In the past week, Kyle Higashioka's 80% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43%.