Atlanta @ New York Picks & Props

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Austin Riley is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Austin Riley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Orlando Arcia pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Last season, Orlando Arcia had an average launch angle of 5.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 8.9°. Orlando Arcia has been unlucky this year, putting up a .253 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .030 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Pete Alonso pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Sean Murphy has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .242 mark is deflated compared to his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Jeff McNeil will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Travis d'Arnaud has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. In the past week, Travis d'Arnaud's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.6-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an edge today. Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Mark Vientos has significantly improved, with an increase from 10.7% last year to 16.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Jose Iglesias will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Adam Duvall's launch angle lately (30.5° over the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 22.7° seasonal angle. Adam Duvall has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .248 rate is a fair amount lower than his .292 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Jarred Kelenic will have an edge in today's matchup. Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Eddie Rosario will hold the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga today. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 7th-weakest out of every team on the slate today. Eddie Rosario has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last year's 88.6-mph mark.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Tyrone Taylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyrone Taylor will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Tyrone Taylor has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10% seasonal rate to 25% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. In the majors, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Matt Olson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga in today's matchup.