Tampa Bay @ Toronto Picks & Props

The #7 stadium in the majors for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. George Springer's launch angle this season (8.1°) is significantly lower than his 11.8° mark last year. In the past week, George Springer's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%. Sporting a .254 BABIP this year, George Springer has performed in the 17th percentile.

Richie Palacios is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Richie Palacios will have an advantage in today's matchup. Richie Palacios hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Richie Palacios grades out in the 92nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (48% rate this year). Posting a 1.74 K/BB rate this year, Richie Palacios has displayed favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Jose Siri has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.331) provides evidence that Jose Siri has experienced some negative variance this year with his .292 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's game. Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Last year, Brandon Lowe had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22°.

Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Last season, Taylor Walls had an average launch angle of 17.3° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.3°. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, compiling a .238 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .044 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Spencer Horwitz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Spencer Horwitz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.3-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.2-mph average.

Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Daulton Varsho will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (27.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 20.3° figure last year.

The #7 stadium in the majors for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s launch angle this season (6.2°) is significantly worse than his 10.2° angle last year.

Rogers Centre has the 6th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Extreme groundball bats like Kevin Kiermaier usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Alexander. Kevin Kiermaier will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. This season, Kevin Kiermaier has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.6 mph compared to last year's 87.4 mph mark. Despite posting a .243 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kevin Kiermaier has suffered from bad luck given the .031 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .274.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Randy Arozarena hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Randy Arozarena has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week. Randy Arozarena has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 83.1-mph over the last 7 days.

Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Posting a .330 BABIP this year, Jose Caballero is ranked in the 82nd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Davis Schneider ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Davis Schneider is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Hitting from the same side that Shawn Armstrong throws from, Davis Schneider will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Davis Schneider will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Shawn Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage over Ernie Clement today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ernie Clement has had bad variance on his side this year. His .305 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Shawn Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Justin Turner in today's matchup. Justin Turner will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Justin Turner's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Hitting from the same side that Shawn Armstrong throws from, Alejandro Kirk will have a tough matchup today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Alejandro Kirk has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 87.5-mph figure.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.8°, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 33.8° mark over the last two weeks. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (21.4°) is a considerable increase over his 18° mark last season. With a .355 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Isaac Paredes is positioned in the 87th percentile.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Rogers Centre has the 6th-shallowest CF fences in MLB. Hitting from the same side that Shawn Armstrong throws from, Danny Jansen meets a tough challenge today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen's launch angle from last season's 19.5° to 24° this season.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.