MLB Picks

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Reid Detmers in the 90th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.. Reid Detmers has averaged 96.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 10th-best stadium in the majors for strikeouts.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-lowest temperature of the day at 59°.. Grading out in the 77th percentile, Reid Detmers has posted a 25.5% strikeout rate this year.

In a season from hell, Dylan Cease has been one of the bright spots for Toronto, sitting second in the AL in strikeouts and having gone seven strong innings in consecutive appearances, allowing just three earned runs across those outings. With Tampa Bay right-hander Griffin Jax entering this one with a 5.00 ERA, expect Toronto to find some traction on offense and cover the run line. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best park in the league for run-scoring.. The 5th-shallowest CF dimensions in the league are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most favorable for hitting of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.3-mph in this game, the 7th-strongest of the day for bats.

The Kansas City Royals lineup is loaded with right-handed bats in the middle of the order, especially the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., but Noah Schultz isn’t your typical left-handed pitcher. The towering 6'10" lefty throws from a low three-quarter arm slot and features a sweeping slider that he can bury at the back foot of right-handed hitters. Because of that arm angle and the movement on the slider, right-handed batters often struggle to pull the ball for power against him. The only other major power threat in the lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. On the other side, the Chicago White Sox can stack as many as seven left-handed hitters against Seth Lugo, which gives them a meaningful platoon advantage throughout the lineup. When you put all of that together, I think the White Sox should be trading closer to -125 favorites in this matchup.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Jacob Misiorowski's four-seam fastball percentage has jumped by 6.8% from last season to this one (54.4% to 61.2%) .

The Seattle Mariners are trading around -121 on the moneyline against the Houston Astros on Wednesday, and I’m hitting the button on that number without hesitation, as I believe Seattle should be priced closer to -145 in this spot. Lance McCullers Jr. was torched in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also dealt with a blister issue during the start. I already like the matchup for Seattle because the Mariners can stack seven left-handed hitters in the lineup, which matches up well against McCullers and his curveball-heavy approach. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s struggling bullpen is forced to cover a significant number of innings if the blister issue limits McCullers or forces an early exit.

The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.7-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.