MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the game's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 10th-best stadium in MLB for lefty home runs.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for HRs.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in baseball for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Austin Slater in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #5 ballpark in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-shortest fences in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the best for hitting on the slate.

Ranger Suárez has been dominant lately, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts while posting a 1.96 road ERA. The Royals continue to struggle against left-handed pitching with a 2-10 record vs lefty starters and a 27th-ranked OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been elite with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA during that two-week stretch.

With the absences of Byron Buxton and now Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens becomes the home-run target for the Minnesota Twins in arguably the best home run matchup on the board today against Lance McCullers Jr., who I have ranked as the worst starter on the slate. He has been giving up longballs, struggling with command, and his BlastContact numbers, along with his HR/FB rate, suggest more damage is on the way. Clemens hasn’t been putting up Buxton-level numbers lately, but nobody has. He does have five extra-base hits over his last five games, including a homer, and profiles as the left-handed bat to target against McCullers, who has been giving up home runs to lefties along with a .876 OPS. The bonuses here are a Houston Astros bullpen that sits dead last in ERA on the season and has thrown the fourth-most innings. Finally, 14-mph winds blowing out to center should help both sides in a game that could easily feature four-plus home runs.

The Pirates lead the majors in hard hit rate against left-handed pitching, ranking just ahead of the Yankees and Dodgers. That's a sign results should follow – especially facing Matthew Liberatore, who ranks in the 10th percentile in xERA.

Mitch Keller has performed much worse against left-handed hitters and the Cardinals are expected to start five, headlined by JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson. 

Jake McCarthy is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the schedule today at 47°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Extreme flyball batters like Jake McCarthy are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kumar Rocker.. Jake McCarthy's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.9-mph EV last year has dropped to 85.4-mph.. Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake McCarthy has experienced some positive variance given the .067 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .297.

If you're betting home runs today, the Halos should be on your card. Jacob Lopez ranks as one of the worst starters on the board with a bottom-50 HR/FB rate and the sixth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games, right-handed hitters own eight of the 10 homers he has surrendered this year, and he’s backed by a bullpen that gives up home runs at a bottom-seven rate. There were a few names worth considering, but I’m landing on Jo Adell, who should hit higher in the order today against the lefty. All six of his home runs this season have come against southpaws, along with a .993 OPS. Mike Trout (+360) and Zach Neto (+460) were two other names I looked at in a great matchup with 75-degree temperatures and winds blowing out at Angel Stadium.

 

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jhonny Pereda ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jhonny Pereda is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.. Since the start of last season, Jhonny Pereda has been pulled from the game early in 31% of his appearances when starting against left-handed pitcher.. T-Mobile Park projects as the #29 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Shohei Ohtani will hold the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Corbin Carroll's launch angle this season (13°) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.8° angle last season.. Corbin Carroll has been lucky this year, putting up a .395 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .037 disparity.