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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 17, 2026.
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STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Tyler Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 2.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jordan Walker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #5 field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks are found in Great American Ball Park.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
BAL
@
TB
Mon, Aug 17 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-112)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over 7.5 works because both lineups are swinging well and the number is low. Baltimore owns a 120 wRC+ over the last week, while Tampa Bay sits at 134 with real power. Neither starter is untouchable, and the Rays bullpen gives this matchup late scoring upside tonight overall.
Moneyline
BAL (+140)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Baltimore has a live underdog profile with Brandon Young pitching steadily and Shane McClanahan battling command issues. Young owns a 3.76 FIP over his last five appearances, while McClanahan has walked 4.85 BB/9 lately. The Orioles’ 120 wRC+ in the last week gives them enough offensive upside tonight against Tampa Bay here.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
JB
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Projection 0.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joshua Baez in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Joshua Baez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #4 stadium in the league for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 8th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The 8th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks are found in Great American Ball Park.
MIA
@
PHI
Mon, Aug 17 • 6:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Cristopher Sanchez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Aisha Quiñones
Senior Publishing Editor
Cristopher Sánchez has taken a massive leap forward this season with a pristine 15-4 record with a 2.54 ERA and 181 strikeouts across 25 starts. His combination of a high-70s wipeout changeup and a heavy sinker is generating soft ground-ball contact and elite swinging-strike rates. That has made it that much easier for him to own the divisional-rival Miami Marlins throughout his career (3-0, 1.06 ERA in 7 appearances). Miami’s current lineup continues to struggle with swing-and-miss against left-handed off-speed pitches, making this a prime spot for Sánchez to work deep while racking up whiffs.
Total RBIs
Bryson Stott o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryson Stott is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #9 field in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
DET
@
PIT
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Dillon Dingler's power against right-handed pitching and excellent four-seam fastball numbers give him a strong matchup against Carmen Mlodzinski, making his home run prop worth a quarter-unit at +450 or longer.
Total
o8.5 (+105)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
AZ
@
BOS
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (+109)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Under 8.5 leans on Bratt’s recent form and both bullpen profiles. Arizona’s offense is rolling, but Boston has cooled off, and the Red Sox are weaker at home. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen owns a 2.92 FIP with minimal homer damage, giving this matchup a lower-scoring path tonight at Fenway Park.
Moneyline
AZ (+129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Arizona has value behind Mitch Bratt, who owns a 2.01 xERA over his last two outings. Boston has cooled off offensively and is weaker at Fenway, while the Red Sox are using a bullpen game. The Diamondbacks’ 133 wRC+ recent form gives them the edge tonight.
SD
@
NYM
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Francisco Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run talent.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Francisco Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Carson Benge is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's matchup.. Carson Benge has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
ATH
@
KC
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Michael Massey u0.5 Total Hits (+172)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Michael Massey is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.. Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average ability.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #7 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 3rd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 83°.
ATL
@
MIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (-120)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
The Atlanta Braves come into tonight as winners of 13 of their last 20 games, and are starting one of the hottest pitchers in baseball post-All-Star break. Martin Perez is not only rocking one of the lowest barrel rates of his career, but since the break he owns a 1.00 WHIP, 1.08 ERA, and is holding teams to a .479 OPS. Not bad.
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+290)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Bailey Ober relies on the fastball, changeup, and slider against left-handed bats, and that falls perfectly in the wheelhouse of Matt Olson.
He has posted ISOs of .378, .289, and .643 when facing those three pitches.
Digging deeper, Olson’s xSLG is almost .600 and he homered on more than 23% of his fly balls against that mix.
Bet Olson to +270.
CHW
@
CHC
Mon, Aug 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (+109)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Power is the easiest path to bulk production, and we should see plenty of it in this game.
Luis Castillo has posted a much higher ERA on the road while allowing 1.98 HR/9.
Shota Imanaga has allowed 1.83 HR/9 this season and will have to contend with a White Sox offense slotting fourth in ISO vs. lefties.
Play to -115.
Total Home Runs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o0.5 Total Home Runs (+275)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Luis Castillo has given up a ton of power to left-handed bats, allowing a .232 ISO and close to two homers per nine innings.
Castillo predominantly uses the fastball, slider, and change vs. lefties. Pete Crow-Armstrong owns a .274 ISO against those three pitches thrown by righties.
Bet to +260.
LAD
@
COL
Mon, Aug 17 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Freddie Freeman's crushes RHP with .316/.392/.500 splits while hitting 11 of his 15 home runs. He faces a bad one in Yomoyuki Sugano, who has a 7.68 xERA and 6.49 FIP against lefties while surrendering 17 dingers.
Total
o10.5 (-112)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
I'm counting on an explosion of runs from L.A. against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has possibly the worst underlying metrics in the sport and has surrendered a .341 AVG and 1.196 OPS in prior meetings with this lineup. Neither bullpen is trustworthy.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
