San Diego @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams today. Over the past 7 days, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 93 mph to 84.9 mph. Despite posting a .352 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has experienced some positive variance given the .022 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Cronenworth today. In the past week, Jake Cronenworth's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jackson Merrill in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 94.5-mph in the past week.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Kyle Higashioka pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Kyle Higashioka with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Over the past week, Kyle Higashioka's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.3% up to 25%.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.6-mph mark last season has fallen to 87.3-mph. Luis Arraez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 17.2% on the season to 6.3% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences among all parks. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Michael King today.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Ha-seong Kim's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.7%. In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck this year. His .223 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Given Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Brett Sullivan will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Brett Sullivan may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 venue in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

David Hamilton is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today.

Fenway Park projects as the #6 stadium in baseball for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 15-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats. Enmanuel Valdez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage in today's game.