Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Typically, batters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today's matchup.

George Springer is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity of the day at 38%. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, George Springer will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for George Springer in today's matchup.

Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Bo Bichette will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for hitters. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Daulton Varsho will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-lowest humidity of the day at 38%. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Justin Turner will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Justin Turner in today's game.

Jarren Duran has gone under 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Rafael Devers projects as the 17th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage today. Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Spencer Horwitz will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Spencer Horwitz may have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage in today's game. David Hamilton will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kevin Kiermaier will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's game. Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for hitters. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Reese McGuire will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 7th-best of the day for hitters. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Davis Schneider ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.4-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for hitters. Davis Schneider pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Davis Schneider generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage today.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Addison Barger has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.